Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Prediction & Picks 9/10/2024

• Date: September 10, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Albert Suarez - Orioles
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

On September 10, 2024, the Boston Red Sox will host the Baltimore Orioles for the second game of their series at Fenway Park. The Red Sox, currently sitting at 73-71, are having an average season, while the Orioles boast a solid record of 82-63 and are enjoying a good season. This matchup is crucial for both teams as they continue to jockey for position in the tightly contested American League East.

In their last encounter on September 9, the Red Sox dominated the Orioles, winning decisively by a score of 12-3. Kutter Crawford is projected to take the mound for Boston, looking to build on a strong performance in his last start where he pitched six innings, allowing just two earned runs while striking out eight batters. Crawford ranks as the 72nd best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he is above average, despite his 8-13 record and a 4.08 ERA this season.

On the other side, Baltimore will counter with Albert Suarez. His performance has been subpar, and he is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced metrics. Suarez’s last outing was a rough one, as he allowed six earned runs over just four innings pitched. This season, he has a solid ERA of 3.49, but his underlying numbers suggest he may be due for regression.

The Red Sox's offense is ranked 6th overall in MLB and has been particularly potent lately, with Jarren Duran leading the way. The projections indicate a favorable matchup for the Red Sox, projecting them to score an impressive 5.55 runs on average in this game. With the Orioles' bullpen ranked 28th, it could be a long night for them if Boston's bats stay hot. Given these factors, there appears to be value in betting on the Red Sox to continue their winning ways against a struggling Orioles squad.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Among all SPs, Albert Suarez's fastball spin rate of 2383 rpm grades out in the 77th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Eloy Jimenez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (86% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Baltimore Orioles projected offense ranks as the 4th-strongest of all teams today in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Kutter Crawford is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #25 HR venue among all stadiums today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

This season, Tyler O'Neill has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.8 mph compared to last year's 92.8 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Boston's 89.1-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in Major League Baseball: #8 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.00 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 75 of their last 141 games (+14.85 Units / 9% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+14.35 Units / 46% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.01 vs Boston Red Sox 5.48

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