Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet – 6/3/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 3, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Grayson Rodriguez - Orioles
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

On June 3, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Baltimore Orioles in an American League East matchup at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays, with a current season record of 28-30, are having a below-average season, while the Orioles boast an impressive 37-20 record, indicating a great season for them.

The Blue Jays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Kevin Gausman, who is ranked as the #49 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Gausman has a Win/Loss record of 4-3 this season, with an ERA of 4.14, which is slightly above average. However, his 3.26 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Gausman is expected to pitch around 5.9 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs and striking out 6.8 batters.

The Orioles, on the other hand, will counter with right-handed pitcher Grayson Rodriguez, who is ranked #48 among MLB starting pitchers. Rodriguez has a Win/Loss record of 5-2 this season, with a solid ERA of 3.53. He is projected to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs and striking out 5.4 batters.

In their last games, the Blue Jays defeated the Pirates 5-4, while the Orioles suffered a 4-3 loss against the Rays. The Blue Jays were heavy favorites in their last game, with a closing Moneyline price of -170, while the Orioles had a smaller advantage with a closing Moneyline price of -130.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank as the 16th best team in MLB this season. They excel in team batting average, ranking 5th, but their team home run and stolen bases rankings are average, at 15th and 19th respectively. The Orioles have an impressive offensive lineup, ranking 5th overall in MLB. They have an average team batting average, ranking 14th, and their team home run and stolen bases rankings are both average, at 17th.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Blue Jays have a 53% projected win probability for this game, while the Orioles have a 47% chance. However, the current moneyline odds and implied win probabilities are both set at -110, suggesting that the betting markets view this as a close game.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Grayson Rodriguez's 95.6-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.2-mph decline from last year's 96.8-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Ramon Urias's speed has fallen off this year. His 26.69 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.2 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Cedric Mullins II hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Compared to the average starter, Kevin Gausman has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an extra 6.4 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Baltimore's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Davis Schneider, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Toronto Blue Jays projected offense projects as the 3rd-best of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 54 games (+6.45 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 42 games (+12.70 Units / 25% ROI)
• Bo Bichette has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 50 games (+13.15 Units / 26% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.28 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.27

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