Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees Prediction For 6/20/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Details

• Date: June 20, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Irvin - Orioles
  • Luis Gil - Yankees

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles are set for an exciting clash on June 20, 2024, at Yankee Stadium. This American League East matchup features two teams having stellar seasons. The Yankees boast a 51-25 record, while the Orioles are close behind at 48-25, making this game crucial for both teams as they battle for divisional supremacy.

The Yankees will send right-hander Luis Gil to the mound. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Gil is ranked as the 28th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his strong performance this season. He is projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 6.5 batters on average. While Gil's hit and walk projections (4.5 hits and 2.1 walks) are concerning, his overall effectiveness has been a key factor for the Yankees.

On the other side, the Orioles will counter with lefty Cole Irvin. Irvin has struggled this season, with projections showing him allowing 3.1 earned runs over 5.1 innings, striking out just 3.7 batters while giving up 5.9 hits and 1.6 walks. This puts the Orioles at a disadvantage on the mound.

Offensively, both teams are powerhouses. The Yankees rank 8th in MLB in team batting average and 2nd in home runs. However, they lag behind in stolen bases, ranking 24th. The Orioles, meanwhile, rank 9th in batting average and lead MLB in home runs, while their stolen base ranking sits at a middle-of-the-pack 13th.

Recent performances highlight some hot hitters. The Yankees' Jose Trevino has been on fire, posting a 1.035 OPS with two home runs over the last week. Similarly, Baltimore's Ramon Urias boasts a .375 batting average and a 1.063 OPS in his last four games.

With the Yankees favored at -140 and an implied win probability of 56%, they appear to have the edge, especially given Gil's prowess on the mound and their robust offensive lineup. The Orioles, while potent at the plate, may struggle with Irvin's inconsistencies. The game total stands at 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive, yet high-scoring affair. This matchup is set to be a pivotal game in the AL East race.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Out of all starting pitchers, Cole Irvin's fastball spin rate of 2031 rpm grades out in the 8th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Over the past week, Ramon Urias's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.4% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Baltimore Orioles projected batting order grades out as the 2nd-best on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Luis Gil has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 3.6 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Giancarlo Stanton has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.7-mph to 103.4-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees' bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 50 games (+20.90 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 66 games (+20.45 Units / 26% ROI)
• Anthony Volpe has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.20 Units / 34% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.61 vs New York Yankees 5.23

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