Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 4/13/2025

Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

On April 13, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Atlanta Braves at George M. Steinbrenner Field for the third game of their interleague series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Rays sitting at 6-8 and the Braves at 4-10. In their previous matchup on April 12, the Rays fell short against the Braves, losing 5-4, marking yet another disappointing result for both squads.

The Rays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Shane Baz, who has delivered a solid performance thus far, sporting a 1-0 record and a stellar ERA of 1.38. However, advanced statistics suggest that he may not sustain this level of success, as his xFIP stands at 2.89, indicating he has benefitted from some luck. Baz is expected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing approximately 2.6 earned runs and striking out 5.5 batters.

On the other side, the Braves will counter with left-hander Chris Sale, who has had a rough start to the season with a 0-1 record and an undesirable ERA of 6.75. Despite this, his xFIP of 3.15 signals he could be due for a turnaround. Sale's projections suggest he will pitch around 5.9 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 6.6 batters.

Offensively, the Rays rank 13th overall in MLB, but they excel in batting average, sitting 5th. In contrast, the Braves rank 22nd in overall offense and batting average, struggling to find consistent hitting. Tampa Bay's best hitter has been a bright spot with a .378 batting average and a 1.157 OPS, while Atlanta's top performer shows promise with a .326 average and a 1.065 OPS.

The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating a close contest is expected. With the Rays' odds currently at +115, and considering the projections, they may have a better chance than their betting line suggests.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Given that flyball hitters have a substantial advantage over groundball pitchers, Chris Sale and his 33.2% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a difficult position in this matchup matching up with 1 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Matt Olson has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94-mph average to last season's 91.3-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Shane Baz's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (58.9% compared to 52.1% last season) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme groundball hitters like Danny Jansen tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Chris Sale.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Danny Jansen pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.9% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 7th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+5.75 Units / 82% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.62, Tampa Bay Rays 3.92

• Date: April 13, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Sale - Braves
  • Shane Baz - Rays

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