Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction & Picks 7/31/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: July 31, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Sale - Braves
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As we head into the third game of the series between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Atlanta Braves on July 31, 2024, the Brewers maintain their stronghold in the National League standings with a 61-45 record. This season has seen them excelling, and they are well-positioned for a playoff push. On the other hand, the Braves, with a respectable 56-49 record, are having an above-average season and are still very much in the playoff conversation.

The Brewers will be sending right-hander Freddy Peralta to the mound. Peralta, known for his ability to miss bats, will be facing a Braves lineup that ranks 17th in team batting average but 10th in home runs. The Braves' power could be a significant factor, especially against a strikeout pitcher like Peralta.

The Braves counter with right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach, making for an intriguing pitching matchup. Milwaukee's offense, which is 5th in team batting average but only 20th in home runs, will need to capitalize on their contact ability to support Peralta.

Leading the charge for the Brewers recently has been Jackson Chourio, who has been red-hot over the last week, batting .450 with a 1.250 OPS, including 2 home runs and 4 RBIs over 5 games. On the flip side, Orlando Arcia has been the Braves' best hitter in the last 7 games, posting a .389 batting average and a 1.222 OPS, also with 2 home runs and 4 RBIs over 6 games.

This game holds particular significance as it could set the tone for the stretch run of the season. With both teams looking to secure a series win, expect a tightly contested matchup at American Family Field. Keep an eye on the Brewers' ability to generate offense through contact and speed, contrasted with the Braves' reliance on power. This one has all the makings of a classic National League showdown.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Chris Sale has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 5.8 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jarred Kelenic is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jarred Kelenic hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta's curveball usage has dropped by 8% from last year to this one (12.5% to 4.5%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Sal Frelick has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.2-mph dropping to 80.2-mph over the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be best to expect worse numbers for the Milwaukee Brewers offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-luckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 37 games at home (+8.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 63 of their last 103 games (+24.40 Units / 21% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 26 of his last 37 games (+13.80 Units / 32% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.4 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.05

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