Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick & Preview – 5/5/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 5, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Fried - Braves
  • James Paxton - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated National League matchup, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Atlanta Braves at Dodger Stadium on May 5, 2024. The Dodgers, who currently hold a record of 22-13, are having a great season and are considered the home team. On the other hand, the Braves, with a record of 20-11, are also having a strong season and will be the away team.

Both teams will showcase their talented left-handed pitchers in this game. The Dodgers are projected to start James Paxton, who has had a solid season with a 3-0 win/loss record and a 3.51 ERA. However, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Paxton is ranked as the #221 best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting that he may not be among the top performers in the league. In contrast, the Braves will start Max Fried, an elite pitcher according to the same Power Rankings, ranking as the #4 best starting pitcher in MLB.

When it comes to offense, both teams have been performing exceptionally well. The Dodgers have the #1 ranked offense in MLB, showcasing their talent with home runs, while the Braves rank as the #2 best offense in the league, demonstrating their prowess in batting average and home runs. However, the Dodgers struggle in the stolen bases category, ranking #20, while the Braves excel with a #7 ranking.

In terms of pitching, the Dodgers boast the #6 best bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Braves' bullpen is ranked #5, indicating a strong pitching performance from both teams.

Considering the projections for today's game, the Dodgers' offense is expected to score an average of 4.24 runs, while the Braves have a higher projected average of 4.76 runs. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, reflecting the anticipation of a high-scoring game.

With the Braves holding the higher implied win probability at 55% compared to the Dodgers' 45%, the betting markets expect a close contest. However, it's worth noting that the Dodgers' exceptional home record and talented roster could potentially give them an edge in this game.

As the game unfolds, all eyes will be on James Paxton and Max Fried, the left-handed aces of their respective teams. Paxton's low strikeout rate may be a challenge against the Braves' lineup, which ranks #6 in MLB for the fewest strikeouts. Meanwhile, Fried's ability to induce groundballs may neutralize the power-hitting Dodgers, who currently rank #2 in team home runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Among every team playing today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the Atlanta Braves.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Marcell Ozuna has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 41.1 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a fair amount higher than his 32.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen profiles as the 5th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Compared to the average starter, James Paxton has been granted an above-average leash since the start of last season, throwing an extra 3.7 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Kike Hernandez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (83% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Mookie Betts hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 73 of their last 130 games (+15.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 62 of their last 107 games (+12.20 Units / 10% ROI)
• Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 24 games (+11.35 Units / 23% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.29 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 4.24

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.