Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Pick For 8/31/2024

• Date: August 31, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Fried - Braves
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies host the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park on August 31, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their playoff positions in this crucial National League East matchup. The Phillies currently sit at 79-56, enjoying a strong season, while the Braves, at 74-61, are having an above-average year but are not in the mix for the division title. In their last game, the Phillies fell to the Braves 7-2, marking a disappointing night for the home fan base.

Zack Wheeler, the Phillies' ace, is projected to take the mound today. He boasts a stellar 2.74 ERA and ranks as the 9th best starting pitcher in MLB, affirming his elite status. Wheeler's average projections today indicate he could go about 6.1 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs while striking out 6.7 batters. However, he may need to improve his hit and walk metrics, which have been less favorable.

On the opposing side, the Braves will counter with Max Fried, who is equally impressive, ranked 6th in MLB with a 3.50 ERA. Fried's projection shows he might pitch around 5.9 innings, giving up 2.4 earned runs. His high ground-ball rate of 58% could play to his advantage against a powerful Phillies offense that ranks 3rd in batting average and 6th in home runs.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Phillies are favored with an average implied team total of 4.06 runs, while the Braves are projected to score a low 3.44 runs. This game presents a significant opportunity for the Phillies to bounce back from their recent loss and strengthen their playoff positioning.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Max Fried's 2217-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 24th percentile out of all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcell Ozuna's true offensive talent to be a .350, indicating that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .055 gap between that figure and his actual .405 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Atlanta Braves batters collectively rank near the top of the league this year (2nd-) when it comes to their 89.9-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Compared to the average pitcher, Zack Wheeler has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an extra 8.3 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

J.T. Realmuto has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (73% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Bryce Harper has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 44 games (+12.85 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 126 games (+27.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.75 Units / 30% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 3.78 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.12

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.