Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick & Prediction – 5/4/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 4, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryce Elder - Braves
  • Tyler Glasnow - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

On May 4, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers will take on the Atlanta Braves at Dodger Stadium. This National League matchup promises to be an exciting game between two teams having great seasons. The Dodgers currently hold a 20-13 record, while the Braves boast a 20-9 record.

The Dodgers are riding high with their strong offense, ranking as the number one team in the MLB this season. They have displayed their power with a league-leading 186 home runs. However, their stolen base ranking of 20th leaves something to be desired.

The Braves, on the other hand, have been impressive across the board. They have the second-best offense in the league and lead the MLB in team batting average and home runs. Additionally, their seventh-ranked stolen base performance adds an extra element to their game.

Tyler Glasnow will take the mound for the Dodgers. As the seventh-best starting pitcher in the MLB, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Glasnow is an elite right-handed pitcher. He has started seven games this season, accumulating a 5-1 record with an impressive 2.72 ERA.

The Braves will counter with Bryce Elder, who has started two games this year and holds a 1-0 record with a 1.50 ERA. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he has been lucky this season and may struggle going forward.

Glasnow's high-strikeout pitching will be tested against the Braves, who have the sixth-fewest strikeouts in the league. This may give the Braves an advantage, as Glasnow might find it challenging to capitalize on his biggest strength.

Elder, a high-groundball pitcher, will face the powerful Dodgers offense. The Dodgers have hit 186 home runs this season, the second-most in the MLB. If Elder can keep the ball on the ground, he may neutralize the Dodgers' away-run power.

Based on the current odds, the Dodgers are heavily favored to win with a moneyline of -170 and an implied win probability of 61%. The Braves, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +145 and an implied win probability of 39%.

In this exciting National League matchup, the Dodgers' potent offense and talented pitcher give them an edge. However, the Braves have shown their ability to compete with their strong offense and solid bullpen. It's a game that baseball fans won't want to miss.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Bryce Elder is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.7% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #3 HR venue among all parks — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

This year, there has been a decline in Marcell Ozuna's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.37 ft/sec last year to 24.79 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen profiles as the 5th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Tyler Glasnow has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 13.7% less often this season (42.8%) than he did last year (56.5%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

James Outman is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Atlanta (#3-best of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Max Muncy pulls many of his flyballs (39.5% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 8th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 49 of their last 84 games (+14.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 66 games (+15.35 Units / 21% ROI)
• Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 away games (+9.05 Units / 59% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.5 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.75

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