Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction & Odds – 7/5/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: July 5, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Slade Cecconi - D-Backs
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres prepare to face the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park on July 5, 2024, both teams are coming off wins. The Padres, who hold a 48-43 record, are having an above-average season and sit 3rd in the National League West. The Diamondbacks, with a 43-44 record, are having an average season and are 4th in the division.

The Padres' offense has been a key strength, ranking 10th in MLB overall, 2nd in batting average, and 9th in home runs. Led by Jurickson Profar, who boasts a .317 batting average and .893 OPS, the Padres' bats have been potent. Profar has recorded 56 RBIs and 12 home runs this season. Recently, Jackson Merrill has been hot, hitting .346 with a 1.000 OPS over the last week.

On the mound, the Padres will start Randy Vasquez. Vasquez, a right-hander, has struggled this season with a 4.88 ERA and a 2-4 record. His advanced metrics, including a 6.64 xERA, suggest he's been fortunate and could regress. Vasquez projects to allow 2.7 earned runs and strike out 3.6 batters over 5.0 innings today, which are below-average projections.

The Diamondbacks' offense, ranked 11th in MLB, has been solid but not spectacular. Christian Walker has been their standout performer, hitting .271 with a .871 OPS. Walker has tallied 22 home runs and 62 RBIs this season, and he's been on fire lately with a .542 batting average and 5 home runs in his last six games.

Slade Cecconi will take the hill for Arizona. Cecconi has a 5.81 ERA, but his 4.41 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky. He projects to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 3.6 batters. Despite his struggles, Cecconi might perform better than his ERA indicates.

The Padres' bullpen ranks 9th in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, contrasting with the Diamondbacks' 21st-ranked bullpen. This disparity could play a crucial role in the game's outcome.

Betting markets have the Padres as slight favorites with a -120 moneyline, implying a 52% win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Diamondbacks a 51% win probability, suggesting this will be a close contest. With the Padres' strong offense and superior bullpen, they have a slight edge in this National League West matchup.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Slade Cecconi is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.9% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #4 HR venue in MLB in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Ketel Marte has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.3-mph to 97.1-mph in the last week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Considering the 1.3 gap between Randy Vasquez's 5.57 K/9 and his 6.87 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors this year as it relates to strikeouts and figures to perform better in future games.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, David Peralta has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His .287 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .333.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.4% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+8.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• Kyle Higashioka has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+7.85 Units / 19% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.76 vs San Diego Padres 4.73

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