Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction & Odds – 9/20/2024

• Date: September 20, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs
  • Colin Rea - Brewers

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers and the Arizona Diamondbacks face off on September 20, 2024, at American Family Field in what promises to be a pivotal National League matchup. The Brewers, boasting an 88-65 record, are having a standout season, while the D-Backs, at 85-68, are also performing well. Both teams are in the hunt for playoff spots, adding extra weight to this encounter.

The Brewers will send Colin Rea to the mound, a right-hander who has had a mixed season with a 12-5 record and a 4.14 ERA. However, his advanced metrics suggest some underlying concerns, as his 4.75 FIP indicates he might have been fortunate this season. Rea's tendency to allow flyballs could be a liability against the powerful D-Backs lineup, which ranks 5th in MLB in home runs. The Brewers' offense, ranked 9th overall, will look to capitalize on any opportunity against Zac Gallen.

Gallen, the D-Backs' ace, holds a 12-6 record with a solid 3.61 ERA. He is ranked as the 26th best starting pitcher, showcasing his effectiveness on the mound. Gallen is projected to pitch deeper into the game than Rea, which could be crucial given the D-Backs' top-ranked bullpen. The Brewers will need their offense, led by Rhys Hoskins, who has been hot over the last week with a .353 batting average and a 1.215 OPS, to step up.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the D-Backs a 61% win probability, suggesting value in backing Arizona given the betting markets' 53% implied probability. With the D-Backs' elite offense and bullpen, they look poised to take advantage of any mistakes from the Brewers.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Compared to league average, Zac Gallen has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 6.3 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Milwaukee's #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Eugenio Suarez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future games

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Colin Rea has used his cutter 5.6% less often this year (20.4%) than he did last year (26%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Garrett Mitchell has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (51% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers' bullpen ranks as the 9th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 78 of their last 152 games (+8.40 Units / 5% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 116 games (+27.55 Units / 21% ROI)
• Pavin Smith has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 away games (+21.30 Units / 133% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.11 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.06

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