Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros Prediction & Picks – 9/6/2024

• Date: September 6, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
  • Framber Valdez - Astros

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks visit Minute Maid Park to face the Houston Astros on September 6, 2024, both teams are in a tight race for postseason positioning. The Diamondbacks currently sit with a record of 79-62, while the Astros trail closely behind at 75-65. With the playoff picture tightening, every game counts significantly, and these interleague matchups can have major implications for both teams.

On the mound, the Astros are projected to start left-hander Framber Valdez, who has been a critical component of their rotation. With a stellar 3.11 ERA and a 13-6 win/loss record, Valdez ranks as the 12th best starting pitcher in MLB, reflecting an elite level of performance. He projects to pitch an average of 6.1 innings while allowing just 2.2 earned runs. However, he also has concerning projections for hits and walks allowed, which could give the Diamondbacks an opportunity to capitalize.

Opposing him, right-hander Brandon Pfaadt, with a 4.32 ERA and a 9-7 record, ranks 68th among starting pitchers. While Pfaadt's projections indicate he might give up 2.6 earned runs over an average of 5.3 innings, his tendency to limit walks could be crucial against an Astros lineup that is currently 4th least in MLB in drawing walks.

Offensively, the Astros boast a 2nd place ranking in team batting average and an 11th place ranking overall, while the Diamondbacks also feature an impressive 2nd place offense, showcasing their offensive depth. However, despite the Diamondbacks' higher standing, the Astros are favored in this matchup with a moneyline of -150, indicating the betting market believes in their potential to outperform expectations.

With both teams eager to assert their playoff aspirations, expect a competitive matchup that could swing in favor of the team that seizes the moment and capitalizes on scoring opportunities.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt's 2556-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 97th percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Batters such as Eugenio Suarez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Framber Valdez who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez is an extreme groundball pitcher (58.4% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Minute Maid Park — the #9 HR venue among all parks — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Jeremy Pena is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 73 of their last 124 games (+19.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 57 of their last 88 games (+25.75 Units / 26% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 23 games (+14.90 Units / 31% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 3.55 vs Houston Astros 4.67

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