Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Picks 5/9/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 9, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Slade Cecconi - D-Backs
  • Hunter Greene - Reds

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

On May 9, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds will take on the Arizona Diamondbacks at Great American Ball Park. This National League matchup is the third game in the series between these two teams. The Reds are the home team, while the Diamondbacks will be the away team.

The Reds are projected to start Hunter Greene, a right-handed pitcher who has shown promise this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Greene is ranked as the 60th best starting pitcher in MLB. He has started seven games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-2 and an ERA of 3.12. However, his xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward.

On the other hand, the Diamondbacks are expected to start Slade Cecconi, another right-handed pitcher. Cecconi has started three games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-2 and an ERA of 4.96. His xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could perform better in the future.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Reds have an advantage in stolen bases, ranking first in MLB. However, their overall offensive performance is below average. The Diamondbacks have a higher ranking in team stolen bases, sitting at third in MLB. Both teams have average rankings in team batting average and home runs.

When analyzing the pitching matchup, Greene's high-strikeout ability may be challenged by the Diamondbacks' low-strikeout offense. On the other hand, Cecconi's low-walk approach may pose a challenge to the Reds' patience at the plate.

According to the current odds, the Reds are favored to win with a moneyline of -125, giving them a 53% chance of winning. The Diamondbacks have a moneyline of +105, indicating a 47% chance of winning. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, suggesting that the game may be high-scoring.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Slade Cecconi is expected to throw 82 pitches in today's game, which is the 14th-highest number of pitches for all pitchers on the slate today. This estimate is based on his inherent tendencies and the nature of the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.

Typically, hitters like Eugenio Suarez who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Hunter Greene.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Eugenio Suarez, Tucker Barnhart, Blaze Alexander).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Hunter Greene's high utilization percentage of his fastball (56.8% this year) is likely weakening his results, consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Jeimer Candelario is penciled in 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 67 of their last 111 games (+14.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 74 of their last 138 games (+12.80 Units / 9% ROI)
• Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+10.30 Units / 30% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.26 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.2

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