Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres Pick & Prediction – 6/9/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: June 9, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Scott McGough - D-Backs
  • Adam Mazur - Padres

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

On June 9, 2024, the San Diego Padres will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park in the final game of their four-game series. This National League West showdown features two teams having middling seasons, with the Padres sitting at 34-34 and the Diamondbacks at 30-35. Yesterday, the Padres dominated the D-Backs with a resounding 13-1 victory, showcasing their offensive prowess.

The Padres, who have an implied win probability of 55%, will look to build on their recent success. The San Diego offense, ranked 9th best in MLB, is led by Fernando Tatis Jr., who has been stellar over the last week with a .464 batting average and 1.195 OPS. San Diego's offense boasts the top team batting average in the league, which could spell trouble for Arizona's struggling pitching staff.

Adam Mazur is slated to start for the Padres. Mazur, a right-hander, has a sparkling 1.50 ERA in his lone start this season, though his 5.41 xFIP suggests he might regress. His projections for today are mixed, with an expected 4.1 strikeouts and 2.4 earned runs over an average of 5 innings. Despite his excellent ERA, Mazur's advanced stats indicate he might not be as effective moving forward.

Arizona will counter with Scott McGough, who has had a rough season with a 6.75 ERA. Although his 5.70 xFIP suggests some bad luck, McGough's projections are not favorable, with an average of only 2.9 innings pitched, 1.7 earned runs, and 2 strikeouts. Additionally, McGough's 13.9% strikeout rate will be tested by a Padres lineup that ranks 4th in fewest strikeouts.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks have been average, ranking 11th overall. Ketel Marte has been their standout performer, especially in the last week, hitting .500 with three home runs and a 1.531 OPS. However, Arizona's bullpen, ranked 19th, may struggle to contain San Diego's potent bats.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Padres a 57% projected win probability, suggesting they have a slight edge. With a projected run total of 4.87 for the Padres and 4.45 for the Diamondbacks, expect a competitive game, but one where San Diego's offensive firepower and home-field advantage might just tip the scales in their favor.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Scott McGough has compiled a 12.5% Swinging Strike percentage since the start of last season, grading out in the 84th percentile.

• Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.

San Diego's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Jake McCarthy, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Adam Mazur has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 14.1 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Luis Arraez's 3.5% Barrel% (an advanced metric to study power) is in the 10th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.05 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 55 games (+10.65 Units / 17% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 40 games (+15.80 Units / 21% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.63 vs San Diego Padres 5.05

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