Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets Best Bet – 6/1/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 1, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Blake Walston - D-Backs
  • Sean Manaea - Mets

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Betting Preview

On June 1, 2024, the New York Mets will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks in a National League matchup at Citi Field. The Mets, who currently hold a record of 24-33, are having a tough season, while the Diamondbacks, with a record of 25-32, are also struggling. Both teams will be looking to turn their season around with a win in this game.

The Mets will send left-handed pitcher Sean Manaea to the mound, who is considered an average starting pitcher according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Manaea has started 10 games this season, boasting a 3-1 record with an impressive 3.16 ERA. However, his 4.50 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in his performance going forward. Manaea is projected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs while striking out 5.0 batters.

Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks will counter with left-handed pitcher Blake Walston, who has started one game this season. Walston has been impressive, with a 2.16 ERA, but his 4.80 xFIP indicates that he may have benefited from some luck and could see a decline in his performance. He is projected to pitch around 4.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs while striking out 3.7 batters.

In their previous meeting, the Mets came out on top with a 10-9 victory over the Diamondbacks. Both teams had a similar implied win probability, indicating it was expected to be a close game. However, the Mets offense has been struggling this season, ranking 19th in the league. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks offense has been slightly better, ranking 14th in MLB. Christian Walker has been the standout hitter for the Diamondbacks, while Francisco Lindor has been performing well for the Mets.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Mets have a projected win probability of 54%, while the Diamondbacks have a projected win probability of 46%. The current betting lines reflect a similar sentiment, with the Mets favored at -135 and the Diamondbacks at +115. The game total is set at 8.0 runs.

Based on the projections, the Mets are expected to score around 4.57 runs on average in this game, while the Diamondbacks are expected to score around 4.43 runs. Both teams have an average implied team total based on the current odds.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Blake Walston in the 22nd percentile when assessing his strikeout skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has suffered from bad luck this year. His .280 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .396.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Eugenio Suarez pulls many of his flyballs (35% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Sean Manaea's fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this season (91.6 mph) below where it was last year (92.8 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

J.D. Martinez has big-time HR ability (91st percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (27.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Blake Walston struggles to strike batters out (25th percentile K%) — great news for Martinez.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The New York Mets have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 13.9° mark is among the highest in MLB since the start of last season (#3 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 48% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games (+7.50 Units / 16% ROI)
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.50 Units / 37% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.44 vs New York Mets 4.58

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