There is just one weekend of golf left before the Open Championship. This weekend’s Scottish Open is the last chance for players to build momentum before that major tournament. There is a $9 million purse on the line this week and the field is loaded with big names, including tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler. Here, I break down this tournament and give you my Scottish Open prediction for the weekend.
Our Scottish Open Pick
- Pick: Tommy Fleetwood (+2200)
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
- Bonus Bets For the Tournament: bet365 bonus code – ATSBONUS – bet $5, get $150 in bonus bets!
Scottish Open Preview
The Renaissance Club delivers a true test of links golf. This course was designed by Tom Doak. it is a par 70 course with a distance of 7,237 yards. There are five par-3s, three par-5s, and a stretch from holes 9 to 11 that could decide the outcome of the tournament. This tournament has been tightly contested in recent years. The past three winners (Schauffele in 2022, McIlroy in 2023, and MacIntyre in 2024) have all prevailed by one stroke.
This tournament is a great test for players going into the Open Championship. The course features a similar style of golf, where consistent ball-striking and an accurate short game are musts to win here. The course record is 61, set by Bernd Wiesberger and Byeong-hun An, but a winning four-round total is likely to be closer to 7‑under to 18‑under, depending on wind.
Scottish Open Course Info
- Location: The Renaissance Club, North Berwick, Scotland
- Par: 70 • Yardage: 7,237
- Five par‑3s, three par‑5s. Coastal holes 9–11 are the key holes.
- Defending champion: Robert MacIntyre, who won at ‑18 in 2024
Betting Odds
- Scottie Scheffler: +360
- Rory McIlroy: +750
- Xander Schauffele: +2000
- Tommy Fleetwood: +2200
- Collin Morikawa: +2500
- Robert MacIntyre: +3000
- Ludvig Åberg: +3000
- Justin Thomas: +3500
- Sam Burns: +4000
- Matt Fitzpatrick: +4000
Scottish Open Prediction
Scottie Scheffler enters as the deserved favorite. His top‑10 finishes here, including T6 in 2023, and his stellar 2025 season make him a serious threat. However, links unpredictability and strong challengers dilute his edge at his current price. Rory McIlroy, with his 2025 Masters win and past Scottish Open pedigree, is also compelling but comes with similar risk.
Tommy Fleetwood, at +2200, offers strong value. He’s demonstrated excellent links performance, including multiple top‑5s at both the Scottish Open and the Open Championship. His shot‑shaping skills and short‑game align well with The Renaissance Club’s demands. Additionally, Fleetwood has recent form suggesting momentum without the burden of heavy odds. I expect him to handle wind and firm surface confidently and likely contend on Sunday.
As a second-tier pick, Collin Morikawa (+2500) is solid. He has a history of major wins, his game fits well on links courses, and his game is trending in the right direction. But he lacks Fleetwood’s proven Scottish record.
Final Thoughts
Scottie Scheffler is the natural favourite, but his odds leave little room for upside. Tommy Fleetwood at +2200 is my primary play. For insurance, also consider a modest wager on Collin Morikawa at +2500, or pairing Fleetwood with one of the home favorites like MacIntyre or McIlroy, as they could also come away with this championship.
