The 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship tees off on Thursday at TPC Southwind in Memphis. This is the first event in the FedEx Cup Playoffs and features the top 70 players from the regular season vying for a $20 million purse and 2,000 FedEx Cup points. There are 69 players in the field with Rory McIlroy out. World number one Scottie Scheffler enters as a heavy favorite. Before the action begins in Memphis, continue reading to get my FedEx St. Jude Championship prediction.
Our FedEx St. Jude Championship Pick
- Pick: Scottie Scheffler
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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FedEx St. Jude Championship Preview
Scottie Scheffler arrives in Memphis after a standout season that saw him earn victories at two majors and consistent top‑10 finishes elsewhere. He leads the FedEx Cup standings by a wide margin and will pocket substantial bonuses even before the final rounds begin. His elite level approach play, iron accuracy, and ability to convert birdie opportunities make him exceptionally well‑suited for TPC Southwind’s layout.
Xander Schauffele sits among the secondary favorites to win this tournament. Schauffele is a proven major contender with strong greens‑in‑regulation stats. He offers solid value if you’re seeking a threat to Scheffler. Justin Thomas and Tommy Fleetwood are both at longer odds than Scheffler and provide reliable upside going into this event.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Course Info
TPC Southwind plays as a par‑70 measuring 7,288 yards. The course demands strong iron play and precision on par 3s. Hole 14 ranks among the toughest par 3s on tour and penalizes errant tee shots with deep bunkers and water hazards. Greens‑in‑regulation performance and putting proficiency are critical at this course. Past champions have all ranked in the top tier of shots gained in ball striking and putting.
Betting Odds
- Scottie Scheffler: +280
- Xander Schauffele: +1800
- Tommy Fleetwood: +2200
- Justin Thomas: +2500
- Matt Fitzpatrick: +2800
- Ludvig Aberg: +3000
- Russell Henley: +3000
- Collin Morikawa: +3000
- Viktor Hovland: +3500
- Ben Griffin: +3500
- Aaron Rai: +3500
FedEx St. Jude Championship Prediction
Scottie Scheffler deserves to be the top pick going into this tournament. His dominance this year and his consistency over multiple years suggest he is well-positioned to contend again. In our simulations and predictive models Scheffler ranks at the top. And with McIlroy out of the field, the path is crowded but clear for him.
Viktor Hovland stands out as a decent value play. He finished T‑2 here in 2024, ranks highly in strokes gained approach, and has had FedEx Cup Playoff success in the past. Russell Henley also merits consideration for top‑10 or outright value given his recent form and course history.
Our outright pick is Scottie Scheffler to capture the title once more. A secondary longshot play on Viktor Hovland to finish in the top five or challenge late also makes strategic sense for bettors seeking longer odds.
