The Virginia Cavaliers (7‑1, 4‑0 ACC) and California Golden Bears (5‑3, 2‑2 ACC) will face each other in the ACC on Saturday afternoon. Virginia has emerged as a surprise contender this season, while Cal has another chance to lock up bowl eligibility with a win this week. Before these relatively new conference rivals take the field, continue reading to get my Virginia vs Cal prediction.
Our Virginia vs Cal Pick
- Pick: Virginia Cavaliers -5.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Virginia Cavaliers vs California Golden Bears
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 1, 2025, 3:45 PM ET
- Venue: California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Key Storylines
Virginia finds itself in a strong position heading into this game. The Cavaliers’ offense ranks among the national leaders, ranking eighth in total yards per game and 18th in scoring. Quarterback Chandler Morris has passed for 1,807 yards this season and has received rushing contributions from J’Mari Taylor. Taylor has nine rushing touchdowns already this season and will try to make another big impact in this game.
Cal comes into this game at 5-3 and looking to lock up a spot in the upcoming bowl season. The Bears are led by freshman QB Jaron‑Keawe Sagapolutele, who has thrown for 1,982 yards, 11 touchdowns, and seven interceptions so far. Cal was beaten badly in the trenches by Virginia Tech last week in a double overtime loss and the Golden Bears will try to rebound here.
Quarterback Play
Chandler Morris of Virginia has adapted nicely to life in the ACC this season. He has a completion rate of 67.1% and 12 touchdowns to just five interceptions. He is a big reason why Virginia is a top 15 team in the country. Sagapolutele of the Golden Bears has shown flashes of brilliance in his freshman season. But his lack of experience and suspect supporting cast could cost Cal against a ranked opponent here.
Betting Trends
- Virginia is 5-3 against the spread going into this game.
- Cal is 3-5 against the spread on the season.
- Virginia is 4-3-1 on over/unders this season, favoring the over slightly.
- California is 3-4-1 in the over/under market heading into this ACC matchup.
Virginia vs California Model Projection
Score Projection: Virginia 31 – California 20
Win Probability: Virginia 68%, California 32%
Final Thoughts
I think that Virginia is going to avoid an upset this week on the road against Cal. The Golden Bears have a quarterback with a bright future ahead of him. But Chandler Morris is better equipped to deliver right now for the Cavaliers. I’ll lay the points with the Hoos, who should improve to 5-0 in ACC play by winning this game.
