Arkansas will head up the river to face Memphis on Saturday in a non-conference game between SEC and AAC opponents. The Razorbacks are looking to bounce back from their first loss of the season and will need to win on the road against an unbeaten Memphis team to accomplish that. Here, I break down this matchup and make my Arkansas vs Memphis prediction for Saturday afternoon.
Our Arkansas vs Memphis Pick
- Pick: Memphis +8.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Arkansas Razorbacks vs Memphis Tigers
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 12:00 PM ET
- Venue: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN
- Broadcast: ESPN
Arkansas vs Memphis Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Arkansas -8.5 | Arkansas -280, Memphis +230 | 63.5 |
Key Storylines
- Arkansas took its first loss of the season last week against Ole Miss. The Razorbacks gave up 41 points in that game and wasted a strong performance from their offense. Arkansas will look to bounce back from that defeat here and to avoid a second consecutive defeat here.
- Memphis is 3-0 to start the season and their defense has been the reason for their success. The Tigers have held their three opponents to 11 points per game and will look to prove themselves on that side of the ball against SEC competition this week.
- This is an interesting spot for Arkansas. They are coming off their SEC opener against Ole Miss and have Notre Dame on their schedule after this. It will be interesting to see how the Razorbacks look with that in mind.
Quarterback Play
Arkansas’ Taylen Green has been the catalyst for the Razorbacks’ offense early in the season. He has 11 touchdown passes and two interceptions through three games. Green also leads the Razorbacks in rushing yards through the first quarter of their season. If Green can impact the game both through the air and on the ground in this game, Arkansas could get an important bounce-back win on the road.
Nevada transfer Brendon Lewis has settled in quickly at Memphis. He is averaging just over 200 passing yards per game and has thrown just one interception through three games. Lewis may need to do more through the air in this game against a better opponent, but he is off to a very nice start for the Tigers in 2025.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Memphis is 3-0 against the spread so far.
- Arkansas is 1-2 against the spread to begin the season.
- Memphis holds a 3-2 lead all-time over Arkansas. These teams have not played since 1998.
Arkansas vs Memphis Model Projection
Score Projection: Arkansas 34 – Memphis 27
Win Probability: Arkansas 62%, Memphis 38%
Final Thoughts
The running game of Memphis will be the key to this game. If they can chew clock and move the ball effectively on the ground, the Tigers could win this game outright. I think that Memphis’ rushing attack will do enough to keep this game close, and I’ll take the points with the Tigers at home.
