Sam Houston vs New Mexico State Pick & Prediction - 10/2/2025
Updated September 28, 2025
Updated September 28, 2025
The Sam Houston Bearkats and New Mexico State Aggies will meet in a Conference USA matchup in college football on Thursday night. Both of these teams lost their Conference USA openers earlier in the season and will look to even their conference records at 1-1 with a win in this matchup. Before the action begins from Las Cruces, continue reading to get my breakdown of this game, including my Sam Houston vs New Mexico State prediction.
Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
Sam Houston -1.5 | Sam Houston -120 / NMSU +100 | 51.5 |
One of Sam Houston’s bigger problems is instability at quarterback. Reports suggest that Sam Houston’s QB competition between Hunter Watson and Mabrey Mettauer continues, with neither firmly separating himself. The Bearkats don't have a passer with 400 yards through the air early in the season, as they haven't figured things out yet. New Mexico State quarterback Logan Fife has eclipsed 1,000 passing yards on the season and will look to carve up the Sam Houston defense at home here.
Score Projection: New Mexico State 34 – Sam Houston State 28
Win Probability: New Mexico State 75%, Sam Houston 25%
Sam Houston is in a funk on both sides of the ball and that should continue on the road here. I expect the lack of a composed passing attack for the Bearkats to be their downfall, as New Mexico State should dominate the possession battle and wear down the Sam Houston defense. I'll lay the points with New Mexico State here, as they should drop Sam Houston to 0-5 on the year.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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