In Week 5 of the CFL season, the undefeated Winnipeg Blue Bombers head into hostile territory to face the Calgary Stampeders on Thursday, July 3, 2025. The Stamps had last week off and will look to take advantage of their rest edge in this edition of the Stampede Bowl. Here’s my Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Calgary Stampeders prediction as Week 5 kicks off in the CFL.
Our Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Calgary Stampeders Pick
- Pick: Winnipeg Blue Bombers -3
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Winnipeg Blue Bombers (3‑0) vs Calgary Stampeders (2‑1)
- Date & Time: Thursday, July 3, 2025, 9:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: McMahon Stadium, Calgary, AB
- Broadcast: TSN
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Winnipeg −3 | Winnipeg −166 / Calgary +140 | 51.5 |
Key Storylines
Recent form
- Winnipeg is 3‑0, winning in each game by double digits and averaging 32.3 ppg while allowing just 19 ppg.
- Calgary sits at 2‑1. They lost to Ottawa 20‑12 in Week 3 and used the bye week to regroup, but Vernon Adams Jr. has yet to throw a touchdown pass through three starts.
Quarterback play
- Winnipeg’s veteran Zach Collaros is in vintage form. He went 25‑of‑30 for 334 yards and three scores last week, adding a rushing TD, pushing his total to 513 passing yards in two games this season.
- Calgary’s Adams has thrown for 803 yards but still has zero TD passes and has three interceptions. He’s added 108 rushing yards with one rushing TD.
Anticipated matchup advantages
- Winnipeg will be efficient on the ground with Brady Oliveira returning from injury and rookie Matthew Peterson averaging 5.4 ypc.
- Winnipeg’s balanced attack forces Calgary’s new-look defense to prove itself. Conversely, Winnipeg’s defense has limited opponent scoring to under 20 ppg.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Winnipeg has covered in 3 straight games to start the season.
- Calgary is 2‑1 ATS through their first three games.
- Winnipeg has gone over the total in two of their first three games, while the Stamps have gone under in two of their first three.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Calgary Stampeders Model Projection
Score Projection: Winnipeg 30 – Calgary 23
Win Probability: Winnipeg 59%, Calgary 41%
Final Thoughts
Winnipeg’s offense and defense are firing on all cylinders while Calgary’s passing attack still searches for touchdowns. With Brady Oliveira healthy and Peterson proving an explosive second option, look for Winnipeg to dominate the trenches and win the possession battle. Calgary’s stubborn home-field record is real, but recent trends favor Winnipeg both ATS and straight up. Trust the Bombers to cover the 3.5-point spread while the over also carries appeal if you like scoring upside.
