The Montreal Alouettes will take on the Toronto Argonauts in Week 16 of the 2025 CFL season on Friday. Both teams are in contention for the second spot in the East and the playoff berth that comes with it. Here, I break down this huge matchup in Canadian football and bring you my Alouettes vs Argonauts prediction for Friday night.
Our Alouettes vs Argonauts Pick
- Pick: Montreal Alouettes −6.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Montreal Alouettes at Toronto Argonauts
- Date & Time: Friday, September 18, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: BMO Field, Toronto, Ontario
- Broadcast: TSN / RDS / CFL+
Alouettes vs Argonauts Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Alouettes −6.5 | Alouettes -290 / Argonauts +235 | 50.5 |
Key Storylines
- The Als snapped a five-game losing streak last week with a solid road win over the Saskatchewan Roughriders. That momentum shift is huge as they head into this East battle.
- Toronto has won some recent games, but their quarterback situation is in flux entering Week 16. Nick Arbuckle is listed as out with a calf injury. Chad Kelly also remains sidelined for the Argos. That elevates Jarret Doege into the starting role for this matchup.
- Montreal has been hit hard by its own injuries. Their starting quarterback Davis Alexander remains on the mend, as does backup McLeod Bethel-Thompson. James Morgan is expected to start again for the Als. Key receivers Tyson Philpot and Austin Mack have also been dealing with injuries.
Quarterback Play
Montreal’s quarterback picture is unsettled. Davis Alexander has been out with a hamstring issue and McLeod Bethel-Thompson also remains unavailable. James Morgan has stepped in and his performance will have to be efficient for Montreal to sustain its offensive rhythm. The Als’ success with Morgan will depend heavily on protection up front and getting the passing game going early before Toronto’s pass rush can settle in.
The loss of Nick Arbuckle and the ongoing recovery of Chad Kelly has forced Jarret Doege into the spotlight for Toronto. Doege has attempted just six passes so far this season and will need to perform without a lot of live game action to lean back on. If Doege struggles or turns the ball over, it could tilt the game strongly in Montreal’s favour.
Betting Trends
- Montreal is 4-2 on the road this season.
- Toronto is 3-4 at home during the 2025 season.
- Montreal is 6-7 straight up for the season and 5-8 against the spread.
- Toronto is 5-8 both straight up and against the spread in 2025.
Alouettes vs Argonauts Model Projection
Score Projection: Montreal 28 – Toronto 17
Win Probability: Montreal 68%, Toronto 32%
Final Thoughts
Neither team is using their regular starting quarterback going into this game. The team that is best able to overcome that adversity will have a huge edge here. I think the Alouettes have the best chance to be that team. I’ll lay the points with the Als here, as I don’t think that Doege will be able to step up in the passing game in this situation.
