It will be an East-versus-West matchup in Week 5 of the 2025 CFL season as the BC Lions visit the Montreal Alouettes on Saturday, July 5. Montreal leads the East with a 3-1 record, while the Lions have struggled, going 1-3 through four weeks of play. Here, I will break down this Canadian football contest and give you my BC Lions vs Montreal Alouettes prediction.
Our BC Lions vs Montreal Alouettes Pick
- Pick: Montreal -3.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: BC Lions vs Montreal Alouettes
- Date & Time: Saturday, July 5, 2025, 7:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, Montreal
- Broadcast: TSN / RDS (Canada), CBS Sports Network (US), CFL+ (International)
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| MTL –3.5 | MTL –205 / BC +170 | 49.5 |
Key Storylines
Recent form
- Montreal started 3–0 before a 35–17 loss to Hamilton last week. Still, its offense has produced at a high level, averaging just over 30 points per game.
- BC has struggled, losing three straight after a Week 1 win. They lost to Saskatchewan by 19 points last week and continue to disappoint in 2025.
Quarterback play
- Davis Alexander and McLeod Bethel-Thompson have combined for over 1,000 passing yards through four games. Alexander is banged up and whether or not he plays will be something I will have my eye on before betting this game.
- BC QBs Nathan Rourke and Jeremiah Masoli have also combined for over 1,000 yards, but they have also combined for seven interceptions. They must do better limiting turnovers for BC to be more competitive.
Key Matchups
- BC’s strength is its aerial attack, but their key matchup is against themselves, as they need to limit turnovers through the air.
- The run defense of Montreal will also be key against the BC rushing attack. BC’s James Butler ranks second in the league in rushing yards with 262 yards on 5.7 yards per carry.
Betting Trends & H2H
- BC is 1-3 both straight up and against the spread this season.
- Montreal is 3-1 both straight up and against the spread in 2025.
- Over/under: Montreal is 3-1 to the over this season, BC is 2-2 on over/unders this year.
- Home/Road: Montreal is won its lone home game of the season so far, BC is 0-2 on the road.
BC Lions vs Montreal Alouettes Model Projection
Score Projection: Montreal 29 – BC 20
Win Probability: Montreal 67%, BC 33%
Final Thoughts
Montreal enters with momentum, home-field advantage, and stronger fundamentals on both sides of the ball. BC’s passing attack is impressive, but turnovers and inconsistent defense hinder their ceiling. I expect Montreal to look like the more disciplined team in this game, doing a better job of protecting the football and setting themselves up for more scoring chances. The Als should win and cover the spread here.
