The last time we saw them, the Minnesota Lynx were demolished in the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Final by the Indiana Fever. Minnesota’s offense did not show up at all in that game and they will look to bounce back on Thursday night against a Washington Mystics team that beat them earlier in the year. Can the Mystics pull off a second straight upset of the Lynx this season? Read my Mystics vs Lynx prediction to find out.
Our Mystics vs Lynx Pick
- Pick: Washington Mystics +12
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
- Bonus Bets For This Game: Use bet365 bonus code ATSBONUS to bet $5 and get $150 on this game whether your first bet wins or loses!
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Washington Mystics @ Minnesota Lynx
- Date & Time: July 3, 2025, 12:00 AM ET
- Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
| Odds | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lynx | -12 | -800 | 159.5 |
| Mystics | +12 | +550 |
Key Storylines
- Lynx look to bounce back: The Lynx were heavy favorites to win the Commissioner’s Cup final but lost to a Fever team that was without Caitlin Clark due to injury.
- Collier’s MVP form: Napheesa Collier’s MVP-caliber play (24.4 PPG, 8.5 RPG) gives Minnesota a potent inside-outside presence.
- Mystics’ youth surge: Rookie duo Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen have made significant impacts and will look to do so against the team with the league’s top record here.
- Injury check: Both teams are near full strength. Georgia Amoore is out for the season for the Mystics. Lynx are healthy with the exception of Karlie Samuelson.
- Momentum Check: Lynx aim to rebound from last week’s loss in DC and tighten their grip atop the standings ahead of the All-Star break.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
The Mystics edged the Lynx 68-64 on June 24, with Minnesota missing Collier in that game. Washington’s win came by exploiting their advantage on the interior, with Shakira Austin stepping up late. Collier is back for this game, which could make things look very different.
- Minnesota is 9-7 ATS, Mystics are 10-7 ATS.
- Over/unders trend toward the under for each team: Mystics 7-10, Lynx 7-9.
- Minnesota is 8-0 at home this season, not counting their Commissioner’s Cup final loss.
- Washington is 3-6 on the road this season.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- The Lynx rank first in offensive, defensive, and net ratings this year.
- Washington is 12th in offensive rating, but 6th in defensive rating, as they hang their hat on getting defensive stops.
- Lynx play at the slowest pace in the league, grinding their opponents into submission.
- Mismatch alert: Collier can spread the floor against the Mystics’ bigs, neutralizing the physicality of the Washington frontcourt.
Mystics vs Lynx Model Projection
Score Projection: Mystics 73 – Lynx 82
Win Probability: Mystics 18%, Lynx 82%
Final Thoughts
I don’t see the Lynx losing at home in this game. After getting punched in the mouth in the Commissioner’s Cup final, Minnesota should have a killer instinct on Thursday. But I don’t see the Lynx covering the 12-point spread in this game either. Instead, look for the Lynx to win a somewhat competitive game, one where the size of the Mystics will keep them in contention until the fourth quarter of play.
