Mercury vs Wings Prediction, Odds & Picks – July 3, 2025
Updated October 26, 2026
Updated October 26, 2026
Historical WNBA betting preview updated with the final score, player prop results, and a review of the original prediction.
The Phoenix Mercury entered their July 3, 2025 matchup against the Dallas Wings as one of the WNBA's strongest teams. Phoenix was second in the league standings, while Dallas sat at the bottom despite showing signs of improvement.
On paper, the Mercury had the advantage. They were playing well on the road, featured two productive stars in Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas, and faced a Wings team dealing with several injury concerns.
The original ATS.io prediction backed Phoenix Mercury -7.5, with four-star confidence and a projected 88–79 victory.
Dallas had other plans.
The Wings delivered one of their best offensive performances of the season, defeating Phoenix 98–89 behind 28 points from rookie Aziaha James and 23 from Paige Bueckers.
The result made the original spread pick a loser, although all three player props highlighted in the preview finished above their listed thresholds.
Below, we revisit the original betting case, examine what went wrong for Phoenix, and break down the most important numbers behind Dallas' upset. For more coverage across the league, visit our WNBA betting predictions and analysis.
Original prediction | Details |
|---|---|
Pick | Phoenix Mercury -7.5 |
Confidence | ★★★★☆ |
Original model projection | Phoenix 88, Dallas 79 |
Phoenix win probability | 73% |
Dallas win probability | 27% |
Actual result | Dallas 98, Phoenix 89 |
Spread pick result | Loss |
The original preview also advertised a bet365 promotion offering $150 in bonus bets after a qualifying $5 wager, using promo code ATSBONUS.
That offer is preserved here as historical context. Promotions and eligibility requirements can change. Check the current bet365 promo code page for updated terms.
Game details | Information |
|---|---|
Matchup | Phoenix Mercury at Dallas Wings |
Date | Thursday, July 3, 2025 |
Tipoff | 8:00 PM ET |
Venue | College Park Center, Arlington, Texas |
Broadcast | WNBA League Pass |
Original spread | Phoenix -7.5 |
Original moneyline | Phoenix -310 / Dallas +250 |
Original total | 168.5 |
Final score | Dallas 98, Phoenix 89 |
Combined points | 187 |
ATS result | Dallas +7.5 won |
Total result | Over 168.5 won |
The odds above are taken directly from the archived ATS.io preview. They represent the original article's betting snapshot, rather than a verified closing line.
For current spreads, moneylines, and totals, see our WNBA matchups and odds.
The original prediction reflected the considerable gap between the teams' records and statistical performances.
Phoenix had established itself as a contender during the opening weeks of the 2025 season.
Dallas had struggled with consistency, defensive efficiency, and injuries.
The Mercury also held a clear advantage in the first meeting of the season.
The teams met in Phoenix on June 11, with the Mercury winning by 13 points.
That result supported the idea that Phoenix could cover a 7.5-point spread in the rematch.
The Mercury were also 5–2 on the road entering the July 3 game, while Dallas had gone 3–6 at home.
Those records suggested Phoenix could maintain its level of play away from home.
The Mercury entered averaging 83.6 points per game, ranking fifth in the WNBA.
They were also among the league's top five teams in both offensive and defensive rating.
Dallas ranked in the bottom five in defensive rating and net rating.
That difference was central to the original selection.
Phoenix had demonstrated the ability to score efficiently while limiting opponents.
Dallas had struggled to prevent high-quality scoring opportunities.
The Mercury were therefore favored to control the game, particularly if their defense could slow the Wings' backcourt.
Phoenix's strong start was built around a productive combination of scoring, playmaking, and versatility.
Satou Sabally entered averaging 19.1 points and 8.0 rebounds per game.
Alyssa Thomas was contributing 14.8 points and 9.3 assists per contest.
Together, they gave the Mercury two players capable of influencing games in several different ways.
Sabally's return to Dallas added another storyline.
She had spent the earlier part of her WNBA career with the Wings before joining Phoenix.
Her scoring and rebounding made her an important part of the Mercury's offense.
The original preview highlighted her ability to take advantage of Dallas' defensive struggles.
Sabally entered the game averaging more than 19 points, making her Over 17.5 points prop one of the featured markets.
Thomas was one of the WNBA's leading distributors.
Her 9.3 assists per game gave Phoenix a reliable source of offense through passing and ball movement.
She was also an important rebounder and defender.
The original article identified Over 8.5 assists as a prop worth watching.
That selection depended on Thomas creating enough quality opportunities for her teammates, even if her own scoring was limited.
The Mercury ranked second in the WNBA in pace entering the game.
That created additional possessions and opportunities for Sabally, Thomas, and the rest of the rotation.
However, playing quickly also carried risks against a Dallas team with talented young guards.
The Wings were capable of scoring in transition and generating momentum through their backcourt.
That possibility became a major factor in the actual result.
Dallas entered the matchup with a 5–13 record.
The Wings had experienced significant injury problems, and several important players were listed as day-to-day in the original preview.
Those included Arike Ogunbowale, Paige Bueckers, DiJonai Carrington, and Myisha Hines-Allen.
The uncertainty made Dallas difficult to evaluate.
The team's overall record suggested a substantial disadvantage, but its recent performances were more encouraging.
The Wings had won four of their previous six games entering the Phoenix matchup.
Their younger players were beginning to make a larger impact.
Bueckers was one of the most important players in Dallas' backcourt.
The rookie's scoring, passing, and decision-making gave the Wings a reliable offensive option.
The original article identified her availability as a significant variable.
It also highlighted Over 17.5 points as a potential player prop if she played.
Bueckers ultimately started and became one of Dallas' leading scorers.
Dallas' defensive problems were a major reason for its poor record.
The Wings entered near the bottom of the league in defensive rating.
They had enough offensive talent to compete, but opponents regularly generated efficient scoring opportunities.
Against Phoenix, Dallas needed to improve its defensive execution while continuing to produce offensively.
The Wings did enough defensively in the first half to build a substantial lead.
Their offense then carried them through Phoenix's comeback attempt.
The original preview highlighted several trends supporting Phoenix.
Betting trend entering July 3 | Phoenix | Dallas |
|---|---|---|
Against the spread | 10–7 | 8–10 |
Over/Under record | 9–7–1 | 9–9 |
Road record | 5–2 | — |
Home record | — | 3–6 |
First 2025 head-to-head meeting | Won by 13 | Lost by 13 |
Phoenix's better ATS record and strong road form made the Mercury an understandable favorite.
Dallas' home record was particularly concerning.
However, those numbers didn't fully capture the Wings' recent improvement or the potential impact of their rookie players.
The matchup illustrated the limitations of relying too heavily on season-long records when a team is undergoing changes in its rotation and playing style.
The original ATS.io article highlighted three player props.
These were presented as props to watch, separate from the official Mercury -7.5 spread selection.
All three cleared their listed thresholds.
Player | Original prop | Actual result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
Satou Sabally | Over 17.5 points | 20 points | Win |
Alyssa Thomas | Over 8.5 assists | 10 assists | Win |
Paige Bueckers | Over 17.5 points | 23 points | Win |
Result: Win
Sabally finished with 20 points against her former team.
She shot 5-of-15 from the field and made two three-pointers.
She also converted eight of nine free throws.
Her shooting percentage wasn't especially strong, but her free throw production helped push her past 17.5 points.
The Over cleared by 2.5 points.
Result: Win
Thomas finished with 10 assists.
She also recorded nine points, seven rebounds, and three steals.
Her scoring was below her season average, but she continued creating opportunities for teammates.
The Over cleared by 1.5 assists.
Result: Win
Bueckers scored 23 points for Dallas.
Her contribution was especially important during the Wings' dominant first half.
The Over cleared by 5.5 points.
All three highlighted props were successful, despite the original game-side prediction losing.
That distinction is important when evaluating the archived article's performance.
The original ATS.io model projected a Phoenix victory.
Model output | Original projection |
|---|---|
Phoenix score | 88 |
Dallas score | 79 |
Projected margin | Phoenix by 9 |
Phoenix win probability | 73% |
Dallas win probability | 27% |
Actual score | Dallas 98, Phoenix 89 |
The model anticipated Phoenix scoring 88 points.
The Mercury actually scored 89, making that side of the projection remarkably close.
The major miss was Dallas.
The Wings scored 98 points, exceeding their projected total by 19.
That difference completely changed the spread outcome.
Instead of losing by nine, Dallas won by nine.
The model's projected 73% win probability for Phoenix also failed to account for the offensive performance Dallas produced.
Dallas started aggressively and established control almost immediately.
The Wings scored 32 points in the first quarter, taking a 12-point lead.
Phoenix struggled to match Dallas' offensive efficiency.
The second quarter was even more impressive for the home team.
Dallas added 29 points and entered halftime ahead 61–43.
It was the Wings' highest-scoring first half of the season to that point.
Aziaha James was the driving force behind the early lead.
The rookie scored 20 of her 28 points before halftime.
Bueckers added 14 first-half points.
Dallas shot 61% from the field during the opening two quarters, including seven three-pointers.
The Mercury responded after halftime.
Kahleah Copper scored eight points in less than a minute, including two three-pointers.
Thomas followed with a layup, helping Phoenix cut the deficit to 69–63.
The Mercury had reduced an 18-point halftime deficit to six.
For a moment, the game appeared to be turning.
James answered with a three-point play, and Dallas regained control.
The Wings finished the third quarter ahead 82–71.
Phoenix couldn't produce another sustained run in the fourth.
Dallas extended its lead to 18 points before closing out the 98–89 victory.
Quarter | Phoenix Mercury | Dallas Wings |
|---|---|---|
First | 20 | 32 |
Second | 23 | 29 |
Third | 28 | 21 |
Fourth | 18 | 16 |
Final | 89 | 98 |
Dallas outscored Phoenix 61–43 in the first half.
The Mercury won the second half 46–37, but the early deficit proved too large.
The Wings' first-half offensive efficiency was the decisive factor.
James was the standout performer for Dallas.
She finished with 28 points, six rebounds, and six assists.
She also made five three-pointers.
Her 28 points represented a new career high.
James scored 20 points in the first half alone, repeatedly finding opportunities against Phoenix's defense.
Her performance was especially impressive given Dallas' starting lineup.
The Wings started four rookies: James, Bueckers, JJ Quinerly, and Luisa Geiselsöder.
That group produced one of the team's best performances of the season.
Player | Points |
|---|---|
Aziaha James | 28 |
Paige Bueckers | 23 |
JJ Quinerly | 17 |
Li Yueru | 12 |
Quinerly scored a career-high 17 points.
Li Yueru added 12 points and 11 rebounds.
Dallas received meaningful contributions throughout its rotation, which helped prevent Phoenix from completing its comeback.
Copper led Phoenix with 33 points.
She made 10 of 17 field goal attempts and four of seven three-pointers.
It was the 11th 30-point game of her WNBA career.
Copper was especially effective during Phoenix's third-quarter rally.
Her scoring helped reduce the deficit, but Dallas responded each time the Mercury threatened to take control.
Player | Points |
|---|---|
Kahleah Copper | 33 |
Satou Sabally | 20 |
Monique Akoa Makani | 14 |
Alyssa Thomas | 9 |
Sabally reached 20 points, while Thomas contributed 10 assists.
Phoenix received strong individual performances, but the team couldn't overcome Dallas' first-half shooting or its disadvantage on the boards.
The final numbers explain why Dallas won despite entering as a substantial underdog.
Statistic | Phoenix | Dallas |
|---|---|---|
Points | 89 | 98 |
Field goal percentage | 41.8% | 47.8% |
Three-point percentage | 34.8% | 36.4% |
Three-pointers made | 8 | 8 |
Free throw percentage | 80.6% | 83.9% |
Total rebounds | 26 | 38 |
Assists | 21 | 20 |
Turnovers | 10 | 15 |
Fast-break points | 26 | 9 |
Bench points | 7 | 14 |
The rebounding difference was significant.
Dallas collected 38 rebounds, compared with just 26 for Phoenix.
That 12-rebound advantage helped the Wings control possessions and limit the Mercury's opportunities.
Dallas also shot more efficiently.
The Wings finished at 47.8% from the field, compared with Phoenix's 41.8%.
Phoenix had an advantage in fast-break scoring and committed fewer turnovers.
But those strengths weren't enough to overcome Dallas' shooting and rebounding.
The original prediction was based on reasonable pregame factors.
Phoenix had the stronger record, better season-long efficiency, and more established production from its leading players.
But Dallas outperformed expectations in several important areas.
James, Bueckers, and Quinerly combined for 68 points.
That was an enormous contribution from three young players.
James' career-high performance was particularly difficult to anticipate based on her earlier production.
The Wings' starting lineup performed at a level that made the pregame records far less relevant.
Dallas won the rebounding battle 38–26.
The Mercury struggled to prevent the Wings from controlling possessions, particularly during the first half.
Phoenix's defensive efficiency had been a major part of the original prediction.
That advantage failed to materialize.
The Wings led by 18 at halftime.
That left Phoenix needing a major comeback merely to win the game.
Covering a 7.5-point spread would have required an even larger turnaround.
Phoenix made a serious run in the third quarter but never regained the lead.
The model projected Dallas to score 79 points.
The Wings scored 98.
That 19-point difference was the primary reason the predicted outcome failed.
Phoenix's actual 89 points were almost identical to its projected 88.
The problem was the assessment of Dallas' offensive ceiling.
The original article listed Phoenix -7.5, Phoenix -310 on the moneyline, Dallas +250, and a total of 168.5.
The final score was Dallas 98, Phoenix 89.
Phoenix lost outright by nine points.
A Mercury -7.5 wager therefore lost.
Dallas +7.5 won comfortably.
Dallas won outright as the underdog.
At the archived +250 price, a hypothetical $100 winning Dallas moneyline bet would have returned $350, including the original stake.
The original article did not recommend Dallas on the moneyline.
The teams combined for 187 points.
That cleared the archived total of 168.5 by 18.5 points.
The original article did not make an official Over recommendation.
Sabally scored 20 points, Thomas recorded 10 assists, and Bueckers scored 23 points.
All three exceeded the thresholds listed in the original preview.
Verified original official pick record: 0–1.
Highlighted player props: 3 of 3 cleared their listed lines.
The distinction matters because the archived article designated Phoenix -7.5 as its official pick, while the player props were presented separately as markets to watch.
This matchup offers several lessons about evaluating WNBA spreads.
Recent improvement can matter more than overall record. Dallas entered 5–13, but the Wings had won four of their previous six games. Their record didn't fully reflect their improving form.
Rookie production creates uncertainty. Dallas' young players were developing quickly. James' career-high performance showed how much a team's offensive outlook can change as players gain experience.
Season-long defensive ratings need context. Phoenix entered among the league's defensive leaders but conceded 61 first-half points. Matchup-specific personnel and recent form can change the expected outcome.
Rebounding can determine the spread. Dallas' 12-rebound advantage helped the Wings sustain their offense and protect their lead.
Individual player props can perform differently from game-side bets. Phoenix lost despite Sabally and Thomas clearing their highlighted props. Bueckers also exceeded her points line in Dallas' victory.
Model projections should be evaluated on both teams' scoring. Phoenix's projected total was accurate within one point, but the model substantially underestimated Dallas.
Dallas improved to 6–13.
Phoenix dropped to 12–6.
The Wings had now won five of their previous seven games, providing further evidence that their early-season record understated their recent improvement.
The victory was especially encouraging because of the contributions from Dallas' young players.
James delivered a career-high scoring performance, while Bueckers and Quinerly continued developing into important offensive contributors.
For Phoenix, the loss marked a second consecutive defeat after a six-game winning streak.
The Mercury remained among the league's stronger teams, but the result exposed problems with rebounding and defending opponents capable of playing at a high tempo.
Dallas defeated Phoenix 98–89 at College Park Center.
Jay Sanin recommended Phoenix Mercury -7.5 with four-star confidence.
No. Phoenix lost by nine points, so Mercury -7.5 was a losing selection.
The archived preview listed a total of 168.5 points.
Over. The teams combined for 187 points, clearing 168.5 by 18.5.
Kahleah Copper led all scorers with 33 points for Phoenix.
James scored a career-high 28 points for Dallas.
Bueckers finished with 23 points, clearing the original Over 17.5 points prop.
Yes. Sabally scored 20 points.
Yes. Thomas recorded 10 assists.
Dallas led Phoenix 61–43.
The model projected Phoenix to win 88–79, with a 73% win probability.
The Wings finished with 38 rebounds, compared with 26 for Phoenix.
All three players exceeded their listed thresholds. They were highlighted as props to watch, rather than designated as the article's official selections.
The original Phoenix -7.5 prediction lost as Dallas delivered a convincing 98–89 upset.
The Mercury's season-long numbers supported their status as favorites, but the Wings were playing better than their overall record suggested.
James' 28-point performance, Bueckers' 23 points, and Quinerly's 17 gave Dallas an offensive advantage that Phoenix couldn't overcome.
The Mercury received 33 points from Copper and 20 from Sabally, but the Wings controlled the glass and built an 18-point halftime lead.
The original model came within one point of Phoenix's actual scoring total. It missed Dallas' output by 19.
→ Our Take: Phoenix was a defensible favorite based on the available pregame numbers, but Dallas' recent improvement deserved more weight. The Wings' young backcourt changed the matchup, and their rebounding advantage helped turn an apparent mismatch into a nine-point upset. The official Mercury -7.5 pick lost, although all three highlighted player props cleared their listed lines.
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Updated October 26, 2026
