As the WNBA regular season presses onward, Saturday’s lone contest pits the surging Washington Mystics against the retooling Dallas Wings. Following a solid stretch, the Mystics aim to grab a fourth straight win, while the Wings look to get a win on the second night of a back-to-back. Continue reading to get my Mystics vs Wings prediction before this game tips off on Saturday night.
Our Mystics vs Wings Prediction
- Pick: Mystics –2.5
- Confidence: ★★★★★
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Washington Mystics @ Dallas Wings
- Date & Time: Saturday, June 28, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: College Park Center, Arlington, TX
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
| Bet Type | Line |
|---|---|
| Spread | Mystics –2.5 |
| Moneyline | Mystics –142 / Wings +120 |
| Total | 164.5 |
Key Storylines
- Washington has won three games in a row coming into this game, including wins over Minnesota and Las Vegas, pushing its record to 8‑8.
- The Mystics will be without Brittney Sykes, Emily Engstler, and Georgia Amoore, while Jade Melbourne is questionable after taking a shot to the face against Las Vegas.
- Dallas is on the second night of a back-to-back here after losing to the Indiana Fever at home on Friday. Dallas fell way behind in the first half of that game and nearly came back, but fell just short.
- Dallas enters this game with roster concerns, as DiJonai Carrington, Maddy Siegrist, Ty Harris, and Teaira McCowan are all sidelined, putting more pressure on Arike Ogunbowale and Paige Bueckers to carry them.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- The Mystics took the sole previous matchup between these teams this season. Earlier this week, Washington won a 91‑88 overtime game against the Wings in Washington.
- Washington is 10-6 against the spread this season, while Dallas is 7-9 against the spread.
- The Wings have gone 8-8 on over/unders this year, while Washington has seen 9 games go under and 7 go over their respective totals.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offense: The Wings rank 7th in the league in offensive rating, with Washington ranking 10th in that category.
- Defense: The Mystics are 8th in the WNBA in defensive rating, with Dallas sitting in 10th.
- Pace: These teams are nearly identical in pace. The Wings are 7th in pace, while the Mystics are 8th, with very little difference between them in their tempo numbers.
- Potential Mismatches: Dallas relies on Bueckers and Ogunbowale to create from the outside, which could cause problems for the Mystics defense with Sykes out. Washington’s interior depth might be too much for the Wings to handle.
Washington Mystics vs Dallas Wings Model Projection
- Score Projection: Washington 82 – Dallas 76
- Win Probability: Mystics 72%, Wings 28%
Final Thoughts
The Mystics have built momentum and they have depth that Dallas simply cannot match. Even on the road, Washington’s defense and interior strength should help them keep control of this one. Dallas will have its moments, especially offensively via Bueckers and Ogunbowale, but the Mystics should manage the tempo and emerge with a win. My top pick is Washington to cover as 2.5-point favorites.
