The Seattle Storm and Las Vegas Aces head into a do-or-die Game 3 in their WNBA first-round series on Thursday night. Las Vegas blew a big lead in Game 2 with a chance to sweep the Storm. Now Seattle has some confidence after ending Vegas’ 17-game winning streak, but the Aces are still the favorites at home here. Before tip-off from Vegas, continue reading to get my Storm vs Aces Game 3 prediction.
Our Storm vs Aces Game 3 Pick
- Pick: Las Vegas Aces −8
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Seattle Storm @ Las Vegas Aces
- Date & Time: Thursday, September 18, 2025, 9:30 PM ET
- Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Storm vs Aces Game 3 Odds
| Line | Seattle Storm | Las Vegas Aces | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | +8 | −8 | Over 159.5 |
| Moneyline | +300 | −400 | Under 159.5 |
Key Storylines
- The Aces enter Game 3 with high expectations given their number-two seed and recent 17-game winning streak. But that streak ended in Game 2 as they failed to close out in Seattle. Their defense faltered down the stretch and A’ja Wilson was held scoreless in the final seven minutes. The pressure is back on Las Vegas to respond.
- Seattle’s late-game poise in Game 2 was impressive. Skylar Diggins dropped 26 points, Nneka Ogwumike posted 24 and 10 boards, and rookie Dominique Malonga made a critical layup and free-throw with 31 seconds left to give Storm the lead.
- Las Vegas won the opening game of this series by 25 points at home and will look for a similar margin here. But the pressure of playing in a Game 3 could impact both sides and make this a close game.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Past meetings: In this playoff series, both teams have won one game apiece. The Storm and Aces also split their four regular-season games 2-2.
- Against the spread (ATS): The home team is 2-0 against the spread in this series so far.
- Over/Under trends: The over is 2-0 through the first two games of this series.
- Home/Road splits: Las Vegas is 18-5 at home including the regular season and playoffs. Seattle is 13-10 on the road after the opening game of this series.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| A’ja Wilson | Over 24.5 Points |
| Skylar Diggins | Under 5.5 Assists |
| Dominique Malonga | Over 7.5 Rebounds |
Storm vs Aces Game 3 Model Projection
Score Projection: Seattle Storm 82 – Las Vegas Aces 93
Win Probability: Seattle Storm 36%, Las Vegas Aces 64%
Final Thoughts
Home teams have dominated in every WNBA playoff series except for the Liberty/Mercury series. I think we will see the home teams in this series continue to have success in this deciding Game 3. Las Vegas hasn’t lost at home since August 2, when they were blown out by the top-seeded Lynx. I don’t see Vegas’ home winning streak ending here. I’ll lay the points with A’ja Wilson and the Aces as they should get to the semifinals to face the winner of Game 3 between the Fever and Dream.
