The Phoenix Mercury will face the Minnesota Lynx in Game 2 of their WNBA Semifinals series on Tuesday. Phoenix will look to even the series after the Lynx ran away with Game 1 in the second half. Will the Mercury be able to make the necessary adjustments, or will the Lynx take a 2-0 lead on their home floor? Before the action begins from Minneapolis, continue reading to get my Mercury vs Lynx Game 2 prediction.
Our Mercury vs Lynx Game 2 Pick
- Pick: Mercury +7.5
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Phoenix Mercury @ Minnesota Lynx
- Date & Time: Tuesday, September 23, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
- Broadcast: ESPN
Mercury vs Lynx Game 2 Odds
| Betting Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spread | Lynx -7 |
| Moneyline | Lynx -310 / Mercury +250 |
| Total | 159 |
Key Storylines
- Injury Update: DiJonai Carrington is out for the postseason due to a foot injury, impacting the Lynx’s depth.
- Player Performance: Courtney Williams’ all-around performance in Game 1 was incredible. She logged 23 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists, and 5 steals. Williams was instrumental in the Lynx’s comeback victory.
- Mercury’s Shooting Woes: Despite dominating the paint with 54 points, the Mercury’s poor perimeter shooting hindered their offense in Game 1. The Mercury made just three of their 23 attempts from three-point range in Game 1 and they need to be better from beyond the arc if they want any chance of avoiding an 0-2 hole in this series.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Recent Meetings: The Lynx lead the series 1-0 after their Game 1 victory. Minnesota has won four of the five games between these teams between the regular season and playoffs.
- Against the Spread (ATS): The Lynx covered the spread in the opening game of this semifinal series. They are 2-0 against the spread at home in the playoffs.
- Over/Under (O/U): The total has gone under in four of the Mercury’s last five games. The first game of this series went under the total in Minnesota.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Satou Sabally | Over 14.5 Points |
| Kahleah Copper | Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made |
Mercury vs Lynx Game 2 Model Projection
- Score Projection: Lynx 85 – Mercury 80
- Win Probability: Lynx 78%, Mercury 22%
Final Thoughts
I think we are in for a close game in the second game of this series from Target Center. The Lynx should ultimately get the win, but I think that the Mercury will cover the spread as the underdog. Phoenix is not likely to shoot 13% from three-point range again in this contest. Satou Sabally, Kahleah Copper, and Alyssa Thomas will lead a spirited effort from the Mercury in this contest. While I expect the Lynx to win straight up, I’m taking the points with the underdog.
