The Phoenix Mercury will travel to Los Angeles to face the LA Sparks on Tuesday night at Crypto.com Arena. There are huge WNBA playoff implications for both teams going into this game. The Mercury are looking to improve their playoff seeding and the Sparks will look to move closer to the top eight in the standings. Before this huge Western Conference matchup tips off, continue reading to get my Mercury vs Sparks prediction.
Our Mercury vs Sparks Pick
- Pick: LA Sparks +4.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Phoenix Mercury @ Los Angeles Sparks
- Date & Time: Tuesday, August 26, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
- Broadcast: NBA TV
Mercury vs Sparks Odds
Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|
Mercury -4.5 | Mercury -166 / Sparks +140 | 174 |
Key Storylines
- Playoff Implications: The Mercury are currently 1.5 games out of second place in the WNBA standings. They current stand in fourth place and will look to move up further to secure more favorable playoff matchups. The Sparks are in ninth place in the standings and need to keep winning to avoid missing the playoffs.
- Recent Form: Phoenix has won three of their last four games. They most recently defeated the Golden State Valkyries on Friday night and will be well-rested for this game. Los Angeles has won two of their last three games and got a win at the buzzer over the Dallas Wings in their last game. That game was nearly a week ago and the Sparks will also be rested going into this one.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Season Series: The Mercury lead the season series 2-0. They defeated the Sparks 89-86 on May 21 and 85-80 on June 1.
- Against the Spread: Phoenix is 19-16-1 against the spread for the season. Los Angeles is 15-19-1 against the spread in 2025.
- Home/Road Trends: The Mercury are 10-8 on the road this season. The Sparks are 7-10 at home.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offensive Efficiency: The Mercury rank seventh in the WNBA in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating. Los Angeles is third in offensive rating and 12th in defensive rating.
- Pace of Play: Both teams play at lightning-fast paces. The Sparks are second in the league in pace and the Mercury are not far behind them in third. We should see plenty of possessions in this matchup.
Mercury vs Sparks Model Projection
- Score Projection: Phoenix Mercury 85 – Los Angeles Sparks 84
- Win Probability: Phoenix Mercury 62%, Los Angeles Sparks 38%
Final Thoughts
I am expecting another close game between the Mercury and the Sparks on Tuesday night. Both teams are gifted offensively. And while the Mercury are better on defense, the Sparks should fight tooth and nail to keep this game close. I am going to take the points with the Sparks in this game, as we should see this one come down to the wire at Crypto.com Arena.