The Phoenix Mercury close their road trip as they visit the red-hot Las Vegas Aces on Thursday night. The Aces ride an eight-game winning streak into this game. This game could help decide who ends up in the top four in the WNBA standings going into the postseason. Before the action begins in Las Vegas, continue reading to get my Mercury vs Aces prediction.
Our Mercury vs Aces Pick
- Pick: Las Vegas Aces -1.5
- Confidence: 4/5
- Get Your Bonus Bets: Claim our Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet $1 and get 20 100% profit boosts for your next 20 bets! Click the Claim Bonus button below to start.
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+ 
4.3/5
✓ Caesars Rewards
✓ Profit Boosts
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
✓ Caesars Rewards
✓ Profit Boosts
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Phoenix Mercury @ Las Vegas Aces
- Date & Time: Thursday, August 21, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
- Broadcast: Prime Video
Mercury vs Aces Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Aces –1.5 | Aces –125 / Mercury +105 | 167 |
Key Storylines
- The Aces are on a league-leading eight-game win streak. They have moved into fifth place in the WNBA standings and could move up to fourth place with a win here.
- The Mercury have won two in a row and five of their last seven games. They won their only other game in Las Vegas this season and will look to get a win over the Aces in Vegas again in this game.
- Both teams are almost fully healthy going into this game. Cheyenne Parker-Tyus is out for the Aces but the rest of these rosters are in tact.
- There are less than three weeks remaining in the regular season. Both teams are jockeying for seeding and potential home-court in the first round of the playoffs.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- The Aces have a 2-1 lead in the season series between these teams this year.
- The road team is 3-0 in the games between these teams this year.
- The Aces are 17-18 against the spread this season.
- Phoenix is 18-15 against the spread in 2025.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| A’ja Wilson | Over 24.5 points | Wilson has averaged 26.9 PPG and 13.1 RPG over the Aces’ win streak and will have another huge night here. |
| Alyssa Thomas | Over 8.5 assists | Thomas leads the league in assists and could be a threat to get a triple-double in this contest. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- The Aces are sixth in the league in offensive rating and ninth in defensive rating.
- Phoenix is seventh in the league in offensive rating and third in defensive rating.
- Phoenix is third in the league in pace and the Aces are seventh in pace.
Mercury vs Aces Model Projection
Score Projection: Las Vegas Aces 85 – Phoenix Mercury 82
Win Probability: Aces 64%, Mercury 36%
Final Thoughts
We should see a close game between the Mercury and Aces here. But the way that the Aces are playing, I can’t go against them right now. Vegas is getting some incredible basketball out of A’ja Wilson and that should continue in this contest against a Phoenix team that Vegas has beaten twice already this season.
