The Phoenix Mercury visit the Indiana Fever at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Wednesday night. Phoenix is on the third game of an extended road trip and got a double-digit win their last time out. Fever superstar Caitlin Clark remains sidelined with a groin injury and no firm return date. But the Fever have won two straight without her. Continue reading to get my Mercury vs Fever prediction for Wednesday in Indianapolis.
Our Mercury vs Fever Pick
- Pick: Phoenix Mercury −3.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Phoenix Mercury @ Indiana Fever
- Date & Time: Wednesday, July 30, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
- Broadcast: ESPN3
Mercury vs Fever Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Mercury −3.5 | Mercury −166 / Fever +140 | O/U 163 |
Key Storylines
- Phoenix comes into this game at 16-9 on the season. They are in third place in the WNBA standings and a game behind the second-place Liberty. A win in this game and a Liberty loss to the Lynx on Wednesday night could move Phoenix ahead of New York.
- Indiana’s season has been disrupted by multiple groin injuries to Caitlin Clark. Clark is out until at least mid‑August and remains without a clear return timeline. Her absence leaves Sophie Cunningham and Kelsey Mitchell to lead the offense from the perimeter. Aliyah Boston remains an efficient option in the paint.
- Phoenix comes off a dominant win over Washington in which Alyssa Thomas posted 27 points, 11 rebounds, and 8 assists. She helped the Mercury pull away in the third quarter of that game.
- The Fever are riding a two‑game win streak. They are still just clear of the playoff bubble without their best playmaker. Their home crowd remains strong but consistency has been hard to come by without Clark.
- DeWanna Bonner will make her return to Indianapolis as a member of the Mercury. She was waived by the Fever after less than half of a season and the crowd at Gainbridge Fieldhouse will likely not receive her well in this game.
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
- This is the first meeting between these teams this season. They will play three times between now and the end of the regular season.
- Phoenix is 14-11 against the spread this season. Indiana is 13-13 against the spread in 2025.
- The Mercury have gone 12-12-1 on over/unders this year. Indiana is 13-13 on their totals.
- The Fever have allowed 74 points per game during their current two-game win streak.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Alyssa Thomas | Over 8.5 assists | Thomas leads the team at 9.4 APG and should distribute well against a porous Indiana defense. |
| Satou Sabally | Over 15.5 points | Sabally has a team‑leading 18.0 PPG and is likely to get good looks against Indiana’s forwards. |
| Kelsey Mitchell | Over 19.5 points | Mitchell is Indiana’s main perimeter scoring option with Clark out. She has averaged 20.2 PPG. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Indiana is third in the WNBA in offensive rating. Phoenix ranks sixth in that category.
- The Mercury are fourth in the league in defensive rating. Indiana is eighth in the league in that department.
- Both teams play at a fast pace. Phoenix is third in pace this season and Indiana is sixth in pace.
- The key matchup to watch in this game is the Phoenix guards on defense against Kelsey Mitchell. If they can force Mitchell into contested looks, the Fever will struggle to generate offense from the perimeter.
Mercury vs Fever Model Projection
Score Projection: Phoenix Mercury 87 – Indiana Fever 82
Win Probability: Mercury 63%, Fever 37%
Final Thoughts
Phoenix’s new core continues to gel and appears to be getting better as this season goes on. Indiana has had moments of success with Caitlin Clark sidelined. But I don’t think this game is going to be one of those moments. I’ll lay the points with Phoenix on the road here, as their defense should make life tough on a Fever team still figuring things out on that end of the floor.
