The Phoenix Mercury will face the Atlanta Dream on Friday night in a huge game in the WNBA. Both teams are in the top five in the league standings coming into this game and will move up or down depending on what happens in this contest. Before tip-off from College Park, continue reading to get my Mercury vs Dream prediction.
Our Mercury vs Dream Pick
- Pick: Phoenix Mercury -2.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Phoenix Mercury @ Atlanta Dream
- Date & Time: August 1, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Gateway Center Arena, College Park, GA
- Broadcast: ION Network
Mercury vs Dream Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| PHX −2.5 | PHX −142, ATL +120 | 164.5 |
Key Storylines
The Mercury enter this game with a clean injury report and full availability. But the health of the Mercury has not helped them to win games recently. Phoenix has dropped four of its last five games. That includes two losses in the first three games of their current road trip. They most recently fell against the Indiana Fever, allowing 107 points in a 40-minute game. Their defense will need to be better to win this matchup with Atlanta.
The Atlanta Dream have won three of their last four games. They have done that despite the fact that Rhyne Howard has been out of action due to a knee injury. Howard’s status for this game is now known at this time after the Dream announced she would be out until the end of July a couple of weeks ago. The Dream have plenty of talent even if Howard does not play. Allisha Gray and Jordin Canada have been effective on the perimeter. Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones have been dominant on the interior.
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
- The Dream won the first meeting between these teams this season. They won that game 90-79 in Phoenix on July 23.
- Phoenix is 7-6 on the road this season.
- Atlanta is 8-4 at home in 2025.
- Atlanta is 14-13 against the spread this season.
- Phoenix is 14-12 against the spread.
- The Dream are 15-11-1 to the over.
- Phoenix has gone 13-12-1 to the over.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Alyssa Thomas | Over 8.5 assists | Thomas is averaging 9.2 APG and frequently runs the show for Phoenix. Her matchup is favorable against ATL’s perimeter defenders. |
| Allisha Gray | Under 19.5 points | Gray is at career best 18.3 PPG but I expect Phoenix to key in on her defensively after she scored 28 points against the Mercury last time they played. |
| Satou Sabally | Over 15.5 points | Sabally is averaging 17.6 points per game and should be a tough matchup for Atlanta’s defenders. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Atlanta is third in the WNBA in offensive rating. Phoenix is sixth in the WNBA in offensive rating.
- The Mercury rank fourth in the league in defensive rating. The Dream are eighth in that category.
- Phoenix ranks second in the WNBA in pace and will try to speed the Dream up. Atlanta is 12th out of 13 teams in the league in pace.
Mercury vs Dream Model Projection
Score Projection: Phoenix Mercury 83 – Atlanta Dream 80
Win Probability: Phoenix 54%, Atlanta 46%
Final Thoughts
Even if Rhyne Howard is able to return to action for this game, I would expect her to be on some sort of minutes restriction as she returns to the floor. I will lay the points with the Mercury in this contest no matter what Howard’s status ends up being. The three-point shooting of Phoenix should help them to get the job done on the road.
