The New York Liberty will visit the Seattle Storm on Friday night in the WNBA. Both teams are in the top eight in the WNBA standings and will look to improve their postseason seeding with a win tonight. Before the action begins in the Pacific Northwest, you can find my breakdown of this game below, including my Liberty vs Storm prediction.
Our Liberty vs Storm Pick
- Pick: Storm -2
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Liberty @ Seattle Storm
- Date & Time: Friday, September 5, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA
- Broadcast: ION
Liberty vs Storm Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Storm -2 | Storm −130, Liberty +110 | 162.5 |
Key Storylines
- The Liberty are struggling coming into this game. They have lost two games in a row and have dropped to fifth place in the WNBA standings. They are just a game ahead of the expansion Golden State Valkyries. That is shocking given that the Liberty are the defending champions and have so much star power.
- Seattle is in seventh place in the WNBA. They enter Friday a half-game ahead of the eighth-place Indiana Fever. Indiana is a heavy favorite against the Chicago Sky on Friday night. It is entirely possible that Seattle drops to eighth with a loss here.
- New York has dropped three games in a row against teams currently in the top eight in the WNBA standings. They will need to prove they can beat quality competition heading into the playoffs.
- Sabrina Ionescu and Nyara Sabally are both questionable to take part in this game for New York entering Friday.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Past meetings: Seattle has already beaten New York twice this season. They won 89–79 over New York at home in June and 79–70 in Brooklyn in July.
- ATS & Over/Under records: New York is 14-25-2 against the spread this season. They have the worst record against the spread in the WNBA. Seattle is 17-25 against the spread in 2025. New York is 17-23-1 on over/unders for the season. Seattle is 23-19 to the over for the year.
- Home/road splits: The Liberty are struggling away from home with an 8-12 road record. Seattle is 9-11 at home this season.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offensive/Defensive metrics: The Liberty are third in the WNBA in offensive rating and sixth in defensive rating. The Storm rank eighth in offensive rating and fifth in defensive rating.
- Pace of play: Both teams play at paces faster than the league average. New York is third in the WNBA in pace and Seattle is sixth.
Liberty vs Storm Model Projection
Score Projection: Seattle 84 – New York 81
Win Probability: New York 41%, Seattle 59%
Final Thoughts
The New York Liberty are not playing good basketball right now. Seattle has by no means been impressive this year, but it is alarming how out of sync New York has looked offensively, something that rarely happened during last year’s championship season. I am going to take the Storm to win and cover the spread at home here and for Seattle to get a huge win to help their postseason seeding situation.
