Friday’s showdown between the New York Liberty and Phoenix Mercury is the second meeting between these teams in 2025. Both teams are in the top three in the WNBA standings, making this one of the best games of the weekend on the schedule. Here, I will give you the keys to this game for both sides as well as my New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury prediction.
Our New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Pick
- Pick: Mercury Moneyline (+102)
- Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Liberty @ Phoenix Mercury
- Date & Time: Friday, June 27, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
- Broadcast: ION
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| NY -1.5 | NY -122 / PHX +102 | 167.5 |
Key Storylines
- New York has lost two of its last three games with the injury absence of Jonquel Jones playing a big role in their recent struggles.
- Phoenix is playing some of the best basketball in the league of late, winning five straight games coming into Friday night, including a win in Brooklyn over the Liberty.
- Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas have been great since joining the Mercury in the offseason and they could pose problems for an undermanned Liberty frontcourt.
- Phoenix is rumored to be the preferred destination for the recently waived DeWanna Bonner, which could help the Mercury get even better as this year goes on.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Phoenix won the first of four regular-season meetings between these teams, winning 89-81 on June 19.
- The Liberty are 6‑8 ATS this season, while Phoenix is 9-6 ATS.
- Both teams have gone over the total in the majority of their games. The Liberty are 8-6 to the over this year, while the Mercury are 8-6-1 to the over.
- Phoenix is in the middle of a five-game winning streak.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Sabrina Ionescu (NY) | Over 18.5 PTS | Ionescu is 4/27 from the field in her last two games but still scored in double-digits in both of those games. Look for her to get right from the field here. |
| Alyssa Thomas (PHX) | Over 8.5 AST | Thomas averages 8.9 assists per game and she was very effective with the ball in her hands against the Liberty last week. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offense: New York has the best offensive rating in the WNBA, while Phoenix ranks 6th.
- Defense: The Liberty are 2nd in the W in defensive rating, while the Mercury aren’t far behind in 3rd.
- Pace: These teams play the two fastest paces in the WNBA, with the Liberty playing the fastest and the Mercury ranking second.
- Potential Mismatches: In terms of mismatches, the Liberty could struggle to defend the duo of Sabally and Thomas without Jonquel Jones to alter their shots with her size.
New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Model Projection
Score Projection: Phoenix Mercury 87 – New York Liberty 81
Win Probability: New York 43%, Phoenix 57%
Final Thoughts
Expect a hard‑fought battle on Friday night, but the Mercury are playing better basketball than the Liberty right now. Expect the Mercury to take advantage of the absence of Jones once again and for Phoenix to get a win that would put them in second place in the WNBA standings ahead of the Liberty as we move closer to July.
