The New York Liberty will play the final game of their regular season series against one another on Tuesday night. New York and Los Angeles have split the first two games of their regular season series and will look for a win in the rubber match here. Before tip-off from Los Angeles, I have broken down this matchup and have brought you my Liberty vs Sparks prediction below.
Our Liberty vs Sparks Pick
- Pick: Sparks +3
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Liberty @ Los Angeles Sparks
- Date & Time: Tuesday, August 12, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
- Broadcast: NBA TV
Liberty vs Sparks Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty -3 (-110) | -155 | O 178.5 (-110) |
| Sparks +3 (-110) | +130 | U 178.5 (-110) |
Key Storylines
- New York Liberty: The New York Liberty failed a huge test in their last game. They lost at home to the Minnesota Lynx in a rematch of last year’s WNBA Finals. New York is without Breanna Stewart but their turnover issues against Minnesota would have been a problem with or without Stewart.
- Los Angeles Sparks: The LA Sparks are in ninth place in the WNBA standings. They are one spot out of the playoffs in the league going into this game. The Sparks have won eight of their last 10 games. But they need to keep winning to avoid missing out on the postseason.
- Playoff Implications: The postseason implications for the Sparks in this game are clear. They need to move up in the standings if they want to avoid missing the playoffs. But this is a huge part of the season for the Liberty as well. New York is second in the league standings going into Tuesday. But a loss here would drop them behind the Atlanta Dream.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- These teams are 1-1 against each other this season.
- Both games between these teams have been played in New York. This is their first meeting in Los Angeles this season.
- New York is 7-7 on the road this year.
- Los Angeles is 6-9 on their home floor.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- New York ranks third in the league in offensive rating. Los Angeles is fourth in the WNBA in that category.
- New York ranks third in defensive rating. The Sparks are vastly inferior defensively at 11th in that department.
- These teams are in the top four in the league in pace. The Liberty are first in that category and the Sparks rank fourth in tempo.
Liberty vs Sparks Model Projection
- Score Projection: New York Liberty 80 – LA Sparks 85
- Win Probability: New York Liberty 50%, LA Sparks 50%
Final Thoughts
This game means a ton to both teams and that should result in a great game of basketball in Los Angeles on Tuesday night. As for the result of the game, I think that the Sparks win a close one. The absence of Stewart has hurt the Liberty, who are still figuring things out with Emma Meesseman joining the roster recently. The Sparks are red-hot and should stay that way here.
