Two elite WNBA teams will face off when the Phoenix Mercury and Minnesota Lynx battle on Wednesday in Phoenix. The Mercury will have to overcome some major injury concerns if they want to win this game against the team with the best record in the league. Here’s a breakdown of Wednesday’s showdown between the Western Conference’s top two teams, including my Lynx vs Mercury prediction.
Our Lynx vs Mercury Pick
- Pick: Minnesota Lynx -7.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Minnesota Lynx @ Phoenix Mercury
- Date & Time: Wednesday, July 9, 2025, 3:30 PM ET
- Venue: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
- Broadcast: FanDuel Sports Network (FDSN), AZFamily, WNBA App
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Lynx −7.5 | Lynx −340 / Mercury +270 | 161.5 |
Key Storylines
- The Lynx are leading the league at 17–2 and they have won five games in a row if you don’t count their Commissioner’s Cup final loss to the Fever.
- Both Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally are listed as day-to-day going into this game. Whether or not they play could have a huge impact on the outcome of this game.
- The Mercury overcame the absences of Sabally and Copper in their last game. They beat the Dallas Wings by 30 in that game. But this game is a much tougher test for Phoenix.
- These teams have the two best records in the Western Conference and the winner will make a huge statement with a victory here.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- The Lynx are 2-0 against the Mercury so far this season.
- Both of these teams are 11-8 against the spread for the season.
- Phoenix is 11-7-1 to the over this season. Minnesota is 11-8 to the under.
- The Lynx are 6-2 on the road this season. The Mercury are 8-3 at home for the year.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Lynx: Minnesota is first in the league in offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating.
- Mercury: Phoenix is fifth in offensive rating, fourth in defensive rating, and fifth in net rating on the year.
- These teams play very different tempos. Phoenix is second in the league in pace. Minnesota plays at the slowest pace in the WNBA.
- From a matchup standpoint this game will depend on whether or not Sabally and Copper play. If they don’t Napheesa Collier could feast on a slower Mercury frontcourt.
Lynx vs Mercury Model Projection
Score Projection: Minnesota Lynx 88 – Phoenix Mercury 79
Win Probability: Minnesota 72%, Phoenix 28%
Final Thoughts
I recommend that bettors wait until we know more about the status of Sabally and Copper before betting on this game. If they play, the Mercury could very well win this game outright at home. But if they don’t, the Lynx could run away with this one. I’ll take the Lynx for now but there are a lot of reasons that could change before this game tips off.
