The Minnesota Lynx and Phoenix Mercury will face off in Game 3 of their WNBA semifinals series on Friday night. This series is tied at a game apiece heading to Phoenix. Minnesota struck first with an 82–69 win in Game 1 and Phoenix answered in dramatic fashion with an overtime win in Game 2. Phoenix will try to take the lead in this series for the first time after stealing home-court advantage. Here, I break down this matchup and make my Lynx vs Mercury Game 3 prediction for Friday.
Our Lynx vs Mercury Game 3 Pick
- Pick: Phoenix Mercury +4.5
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Minnesota Lynx @ Phoenix Mercury
- Date & Time: Friday, September 26, 2025, 9:30 PM ET
- Venue: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Lynx vs Mercury Game 3 Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Lynx −4.5 | Mercury +160 / Lynx −192 | 158.5 |
Key Storylines
- Home shift and crowd factor: Phoenix now hosts Game 3 after splitting the first two games of this series in Minneapolis. The Mercury will lean on the home setting to continue applying the pressure they put on the Lynx in Game 2.
- Turnovers & second-half collapses: In Game 2, Minnesota committed 18 turnovers, allowing Phoenix to score 21 points off transition opportunities. The Lynx must clean that up if they want to rebound from their 20-point collapse on Tuesday night.
- Phoenix’s comeback: The Mercury showed resolve in Game 2, with Sabally scoring 24 points and 11 in the fourth quarter. They’ll aim to carry the confidence built from that comeback into Game 3.
- Bench depth and consistency: Minnesota’s bench was buried in Game 2. They were outscored 25–3 by the Mercury bench. With DiJonai Carrington unavailable, the Lynx must rely heavily on their starters to carry the load.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Past meetings: Minnesota won three of four games in the regular season against Phoenix. In the postseason, their series is split 1–1 after two games.
- ATS records: These teams have each covered the spread once in this series so far. The winner of each game covered the number in each of those matchups.
- Home/road splits: The Lynx are 1-0 on the road in the playoffs so far. They beat the Golden State Valkyries in Game 2 of their first-round series in San Jose. Phoenix is 1-1 at home in the playoffs. They lost Game 1 at home against the New York Liberty in the last round and won the deciding Game 3 of that series at PHX Arena.
Lynx vs Mercury Game 3 Model Projection
Score Projection: Minnesota 78 – Phoenix 75
Win Probability: Minnesota 56%, Phoenix 44%
Final Thoughts
The winner of this game will be just one win away from making it to the WNBA Finals. I do think that Napheesa Collier and the Lynx will ultimately win Game 3 on the road to take home-court advantage back in this series. But I think that this game will be incredibly close and the Mercury should cover the spread as a home underdog in what will be another incredible contest between these two great basketball teams.
