The Los Angeles Sparks (4–9) head to Minnesota to face the league‑best Lynx (11–1) on Saturday, June 21, at 8:00 p.m. ET. The Lynx have been dominant at home, maintaining an unblemished 6–0 record at Target Center this season, while the Sparks are still trying to find consistency after making roster and coaching changes. Here, we break down this matchup and give you our Los Angeles Sparks vs Minnesota Lynx prediction for Saturday night.
Our Los Angeles Sparks vs Minnesota Lynx Pick
- Spread: Sparks +11
- Total: Over 161
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: LA Sparks @ Minnesota Lynx
- Date & Time: June 21, 2025, 8:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
- Broadcast: NBA TV
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Lynx −11 | Sparks +490 / Lynx −675 | 161 |
Key Storylines
- Lynx Starting Strong: Minnesota has the best record in the WNBA so far this season at 11-1 and they aren’t showing any signs of slowing down just yet.
- Sparks’ Rebuild: LA is adjusting to a new coaching regime under Lynne Roberts and leaning heavily on the Kelsey Plum–Dearica Hamby duo as their core. So far, results have not been great as they figure things out.
- Collier’s Health: Unless Napheesa Collier misses a significant chunk of this season, she is likely to be this year’s WNBA MVP. But she exited Minnesota’s last game with a back injury and her status is uncertain for this contest at home.
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
- The Lynx are 2-0 against the Sparks this season, winning by double-digits both at home and on the road so far in their season series.
- The Lynx are 6-6 against the spread despite being 11-1 straight up.
- LA is 5-8 against the spread, a game better than their 4-9 straight up record.
- Totals trend: The Lynx are 5-7 on totals this year, with over half their games staying under their totals, while the Sparks are 8-4-1 to the over on the year.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offense/Defense: Minnesota ranks 2nd in offensive, defensive, and net rating this season. The Sparks are 7th in offensive rating and 10th in defensive and net ratings on the year.
- Pace of play: LA ranks 3rd in the WNBA in pace, while the Lynx play at the slowest tempo in the W.
- Potential mismatch: The Plum–Hamby pick‑and‑roll is dangerous. If Collier is unable to go for the Lynx in this game, LA could take advantage with that combination.
Los Angeles Sparks vs Minnesota Lynx Model Projection
Our model estimates Minnesota wins approximately 79% of the time, while Sparks cover the 11-point spread around 57% of the time.
Score Projection: Minnesota 90 – Sparks 82
Win Probability: Lynx 79%, Sparks 21%
Final Thoughts
Minnesota’s depth, home‑court advantage, and elite defense make them a strong candidate to win at home over the Sparks, even if Napheesa Collier is held out due to injury. But we will take the points with the Sparks here given that Collier’s health is a question mark, as the Lynx being cautious with their top star could help LA hang around in this contest.
