The Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury will face off in Game 3 of the WNBA Finals on Wednesday night. The Aces arrive in Phoenix with a 2–0 lead in the series, having taken each of the first two games in Las Vegas. Will the Mercury get back into the series, or will the Aces jump out to a commanding 3-0 lead? Continue reading to get my Aces vs Mercury Game 3 prediction from The Valley.
Our Aces vs Mercury Game 3 Pick
- Pick: Phoenix Mercury -4
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Las Vegas Aces @ Phoenix Mercury
- Date & Time: Wednesday, October 8, 2025, 8:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
- Broadcast: ESPN
Aces vs Mercury Game 3 Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Mercury -4 | Aces +150 / Mercury -180 | 163.5 |
Key Storylines
- The Aces lead the WNBA Finals 2–0 and control the series momentum. But the series has moved to Phoenix and the Mercury will try to use their home-court advantage to get back into the series.
- Jackie Young exploded for 32 points in Game 2, including a Finals record 21 in a single quarter. League MVP A’ja Wilson posted 28 and 14 for the Aces. That duo will try to get their team to within a game of the title with a win here.
- The duo of Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally combined for 45 points for the Mercury in Game 2. If they are efficient in this game, the Mercury could end up within a game of tying things up in the first-ever best-of-seven WNBA Finals.
- Bench scoring has been a huge factor for Vegas through the first two games of this series. They outscored the Phoenix bench 16-8 in Game 2 and Phoenix needs its role players to step up to avoid a 3-0 deficit.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| A’ja Wilson | Over 24.5 points |
| Jackie Young | Under 16.5 points |
| Alyssa Thomas | Over 9.5 rebounds |
| Satou Sabally | Over 1.5 threes made |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- The Aces come into this game with the top offensive rating in the WNBA playoffs.
- Phoenix ranks fifth among playoff teams in offensive rating.
- Phoenix is second in the WNBA playoffs in defensive rating.
- Las Vegas is fifth in the postseason in defensive rating.
- The Mercury rank second among playoff teams in pace this postseason.
- Las Vegas is fourth in pace during the playoffs.
Aces vs Mercury Game 3 Model Projection
Score Projection: Aces 81 – Mercury 87
Win Probability: Aces 42%, Mercury 58%
Final Thoughts
Game 3 is the Mercury’s last realistic lifeline to stay in this series. If they fall behind by three games, it would be virtually impossible for them to come back with four straight wins, especially with two games still coming in Vegas. Phoenix will have home-court advantage here and that should help them compete harder on both ends.
While Vegas has had the upper hand in this series so far, I don’t think that the Mercury are going to fall behind 3-0. I am laying the points with Phoenix, as they should come out and play hard to get on the board in this series.
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