Two recent WNBA champions will face off in Brooklyn on Tuesday night. The Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty both have star power, but are struggling going into this matchup. Here’s a full preview of the Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty game on Tuesday, July 8, including my Aces vs Liberty prediction.
Our Aces vs Liberty Pick
- Pick: New York Liberty -5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Las Vegas Aces @ New York Liberty
- Date & Time: July 8, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York
- Broadcast: ESPN
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| NY -5 | NY -210 / LV +180 | 165.5 |
Key Storylines
- The Liberty are missing center Jonquel Jones, sidelined for at least four to six weeks following a sprained right ankle. Without her, the Liberty have struggled on defense and have lost three of their last four games.
- To make matters worse, Isabelle Harrison is also injured for the Liberty, further hurting their frontcourt depth.
- The Aces are coming off of a blowout win over the Connecticut Sun, in a bounce-back game for A’ja Wilson, who had 19 points on 8/10 shooting.
- The Aces are 9‑9 for the season and they have been criticized for their effort recently by head coach Becky Hammon.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- The Liberty opened their season with a 92‑78 win over Las Vegas May 17.
- N.Y. is 7‑2 at home this season, Las Vegas is 4‑5 on the road.
- Both teams have losing records against the spread this year. The Liberty are 6-11-1 against the spread and the Aces are 7-11 against the spread in 2025.
- New York is 10-8 to the over on the year, the Aces are 10-8 to the under.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | Over 8.5 Rebounds | Without Jones, Stewart has averaged 9.4 RPG over the last five games, including 14 boards vs LA. |
| A’ja Wilson | Over 23.5 Points | Wilson is averaging 21.9 PPG with strong efficiency and will benefit from Jones’ absence. |
| Natasha Cloud | Over 6.5 Assists | Cloud is averaging 6.2 assists per game on the season and will need to distribute the ball effectively to help the Liberty win this game. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Off/Def Efficiency: New York scores 86.7 PPG while allowing 79.8. Las Vegas scores 79.7 while allowing 81.2.
- Pace: The Liberty play with the fastest pace in the league, while the Aces rank seventh.
- Mismatches: Wilson should have a big game here with Jonquel Jones and Isabelle Harrison out of action. But the guards of the Liberty should play well against the Vegas backcourt.
Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty Model Projection
Score Projection: NY Liberty 83 – Las Vegas Aces 81
Win Probability: New York 72%, Las Vegas 28%
Final Thoughts
Neither of these teams are at their best right now. I think the Liberty have enough depth left to take care of business at home. But I do expect the game to be close and for the Aces to cover the spread in a game the Aces will be desperate to win to get back above .500 for the year.
