On Thursday night, the Las Vegas Aces and Indiana Fever will meet in a mid-off, with both teams sporting .500 records on the season. Indiana put on a defensive masterclass to win Tuesday’s Commissioner’s Cup final despite not having Caitlin Clark on the floor. Can they follow that up with a win over reigning MVP A’ja Wilson and the Aces? Continue reading my Aces vs Fever prediction to find out if I think so.
Our Aces vs Fever Pick
- Pick: Las Vegas Aces -1.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
- Bonus Bets For the Game: Use bet365 promo code ATSBONUS to bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets for Aces vs Fever!
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Las Vegas Aces @ Indiana Fever
- Date & Time: July 3, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
- Broadcast: Prime Video
| Type | Line |
|---|---|
| Spread | Aces -1.5 |
| Moneyline | Aces -125 / Fever +105 |
| Total | 163.5 |
Key Storylines
- Indiana is riding momentum after claiming the Commissioner’s Cup on July 1 with a 74–59 win over Minnesota.
- Caitlin Clark remains sidelined with a lingering groin issue, a blow to Indiana’s offensive flow.
- The Aces are 8–8 despite inconsistency. A recent win over Phoenix provides confidence but they need to follow that performance up with another win to move above the .500 mark.
- Las Vegas has added NaLyssa Smith via trade. Her familiarity with Indiana adds intrigue and she adds some much-needed physicality for the Aces.
- Both teams are tied in the standings in a tight race for playoff seeding, raising the stakes for this matchup.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- The Aces won the first game of the season series between these teams, a 89–81 win in Indiana on June 22.
- Las Vegas is 6-10 against the spread this season, Indiana is 8-8 ATS.
- The Aces have split their games 8-8 on the over/under line, the Fever have gone 7-9.
- Home/road splits: Vegas is just 3-4 on the road, while the Fever are an underwhelming 4-4 at home.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offense: Indiana is 4th in the W in offensive rating, the Aces rank 9th.
- Pace: Both teams rank in the top half of the league in pace, though neither one is a consistent over team on the year.
- Defense: The defenses in this matchup have been mediocre in 2025. Indiana is 8th in the league in defensive rating, the Aces are 9th.
- Mismatches: These teams are pretty evenly matched, but if A’ja Wilson can get Natasha Howard into foul trouble, I don’t see that ending well for the Fever defense.
Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever Model Projection
Score Projection: Aces 85 – Fever 81
Win Probability: Aces 56%, Fever 44%
Final Thoughts
I recommend waiting to find out more about Caitlin Clark’s status before placing any bets on this game. If she plays and is reasonably healthy, the Fever could very well win at home. But Clark sitting out the Commissioner’s Cup final on Tuesday doesn’t seem reassuring to me. I’ll take the Aces without knowing whether or not we’ll see Clark on the floor in what should be an entertaining game from Indy.
