The Indiana Fever will face the Dallas Wings at American Airlines Center in Dallas on Friday, June 27, 2025. Indiana is playing for the second straight night here, though they did not play Caitlin Clark on Thursday, while Dallas is hoping to take advantage of the Fever’s tired legs to get a much-needed win. Here, I break down this Friday night WNBA matchup and give you my Indiana Fever vs Dallas Wings prediction as we could see the first professional matchup between Clark and Paige Bueckers.
Our Indiana Fever vs Dallas Wings Pick
- Spread: Wings +4
- Total: Over 169.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Indiana Fever @ Dallas Wings
- Date & Time: Friday, June 27, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
- Broadcast: ION
| Indiana | Dallas | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -4 | +4 |
| Moneyline | -192 | +160 |
| Total | 169.5 | |
Key Storylines
- This game could be the first meeting between Caitlin Clark and Paige Bueckers as pros. Whether or not that happens will depend on whether or not Clark plays, after she was held out of Indiana’s loss to the LA Sparks on Thursday with a groin injury.
- The Fever are facing some off‑court turbulence. Veteran DeWanna Bonner was waived on June 25 after missing time for personal reasons and expressing a desire to leave the team.
- Dallas has lost key guard Ty Harris for the season due to knee surgery. They are also without Maddy Siegrist, Teaira McCowan, and Luisa Geiselsoder. DiJonai Carrington is also doubtful with a rib injury.
- Both Clark and Bueckers are leading their respective teams in scoring this season, but consistent help has been hard to come by for both young stars.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This is the first of four meetings between the Fever and Wings this season, all of which are nationally televised.
- The Fever are 7-8 straight up and against the spread so far this season. Dallas is 4-12 straight up but a more respectable 7-9 against the spread.
- Over/unders have gone 8-8 for the Wings this year, while the under has cashed 9 times in 15 games involving the Fever.
- Dallas has won three of its last four games after a 1-12 start.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Clark | Over 9.5 assists | Clark has been struggling with her shot and should be a willing passer in this contest. |
| Arike Ogunbowale | Over 17.5 points | Ogunbowale has cleared this total in four of her last five games after a disastrous start to her season. |
| Paige Bueckers | Over 17.5 points | Bueckers leads the Wings with 17.7 points per game and should play well against a Fever team whose defensive weakness is on the perimeter. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Indiana’s offense ranks 5th in offensive rating, while the Wings are 7th in that department.
- The Fever are 6th in defensive rating, while the Wings rank 10th out of 13 WNBA teams.
- Indiana ranks 4th in pace, while the Wings rank 8th.
- Potential mismatch: Indiana’s Aliyah Boston dominates the paint and should have a big game against a short-handed Dallas frontcourt. Ogunbowale and Bueckers could tear up a porous perimeter defense for the Fever.
Indiana Fever vs Dallas Wings Model Projection
Score Projection: Dallas 91 – Indiana 90
Win Probability: Dallas 50%, Indiana 50%
Final Thoughts
This game could go either way as far as I’m concerned. Under normal circumstances, the Fever would be the better team, but having to travel overnight to play on a back-to-back makes this a tough spot for them. With Clark banged up and struggling with her scoring, expect this game to be close and for Dallas to cover the spread, even if Indiana ultimately takes it as a favorite on the road.
