The second of four contests between the Indiana Fever and the Atlanta Dream will take place Thursday night, and the storylines could hardly be sharper after Tuesday’s one-point thriller in Indianapolis. Caitlin Clark dazzled once again, but Rhyne Howard’s late free throws stole the show and gave Atlanta a 91-90 victory that flipped both clubs to one win and one loss. Now the scene shifts to State Farm Arena, where Atlanta plays its home opener and Indiana looks to prove Tuesday’s slip was a blip rather than the start of a trend. Bettors have wasted no time staking positions: the Fever opened as a 3.5-point favorite, with a game total of 172.5 for this Fever vs Dream rematch.
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Fever vs Dream Preview
Even in defeat, Indiana’s offensive ceiling was on full display on Tuesday night. The Fever average 91.5 points through two regular-season outings and are converting 47.6% of their shots from the field. Clark headlines those numbers with 23.5 points and 10.5 assists per game while shooting 45.5%. The backcourt duo of Clark and Kelsey Mitchell has started out hot from three-point range, stretching defenses well beyond the arc and opening space inside for Aliyah Boston. Boston’s stat line is already All-WNBA caliber. She is averaging 21.5 points on 68% shooting and 11.5 rebounds. If wing scorer Sophie Cunningham is cleared after being listed as a game-time decision, Indiana’s spacing will be even more dangerous.
Atlanta is coming off of its first win under new head coach Karl Smesko, whose game plan is clear: shoot threes in volume while pounding the paint through twin towers Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones. The Dream attempted 30 triples on Tuesday and still generated 32 free throws, a sign that the perimeter barrage does not come at the expense of physical interior play. Allisha Gray leads the club at 20.5 points and 6.5 assists per game, while Jones is matching Boston on the glass at 11.5 rebounds. Howard flashed her star potential by hitting four clutch shots in the fourth quarter on Tuesday, and her size on the wing gives Atlanta a switch-friendly defensive look that Indiana struggled to solve late.
The first meeting between these teams revealed contrasting strengths. Indiana’s defense surrendered 91 points yet still owns a two-game average of 74.5 ppg allowed, thanks to a 93-58 opening win over Chicago. Atlanta’s defense is less proven, giving up 92 per night and allowing opponents to shoot over 41%. That difference in efficiency is part of why bookmakers still prefer Indiana despite Tuesday’s outcome and despite the move to Atlanta’s home floor.
Betting Insights
- Spread – Indiana -3.5. Early money leaned to the Fever, nudging juice from -110 to -115 at some sportsbooks.
- Moneyline – Indiana -165, Atlanta +140.
- Total – 172.5 points. The first regular-season contest sailed over that figure with 181 combined points, while each team’s season scoring average keeps the projection high.
- Recent Form – Indiana: lost 91-90 to Atlanta, beat Chicago 93-58. Atlanta: beat Indiana 91-90, lost 94-90 to Washington.
- Key Player Props – Caitlin Clark over 8.5 assists has cashed in both games. Allisha Gray over 18.5 points is also 2-0.
- Injuries – Indiana: Sophie Cunningham is a game-time decision. Atlanta: Jordin Canada remains out, trimming backcourt depth.
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Fever vs Dream Prediction
The Dream’s Tuesday win hinged on a high volume of free throws and timely defense, yet indicators below the surface still favor the Fever. Indiana shot 54 percent inside the arc despite a slow start, and Clark’s 11 assists could have been 15 with cleaner finishing in transition. Atlanta relied on 32 attempts at the line and 12 offensive boards just to escape by one. Replicating that exact recipe is difficult, especially with the Fever sure to adjust their help defense on Griner and Jones.
Atlanta will feed off its home crowd, but the defensive metrics suggest more of the same shootout style, and Indiana’s efficiency edge should reassert itself. Expect Clark to control the pace, Boston to stay out of foul trouble, and Indiana’s spacing to punish Atlanta’s closeouts. A projected score around Indiana 92, Atlanta 86 shows value on the favorite and a lean to the over, given both clubs’ willingness to push tempo and hoist threes.
Best Bet – Indiana Fever -3.5. Secondary lean: Over 172.5.
