The Connecticut Sun will travel to Brooklyn to face the New York Liberty at Barclays Center on Monday night. New York is desperate for a win tonight after dropping to fifth in the standings over the weekend. They will look to take advantage of this matchup against one of the worst teams in the WNBA for the year. Before tip-off from Brooklyn, continue reading to get my Sun vs Liberty prediction for tonight’s matchup.
Our Sun vs Liberty Pick
- Pick: Liberty -12
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Connecticut Sun @ New York Liberty
- Date & Time: Monday, August 25, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
Sun vs Liberty Odds
| Betting Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spread | NYL -12 |
| Moneyline | NYL -675 / CON +490 |
| Total Points | 165.5 |
Key Storylines
- Injuries: The Liberty have been without Breanna Stewart for an extended period of time. But she is questionable to make her long-awaited return in this contest. Sabrina Ionescu is also questionable after missing New York’s last game against the Atlanta Dream on Saturday.
- Recent Form: The Sun have won four of their last five games and are showing a ton of heart during what has been a rough season for them. The Liberty have lost four of their last five games and have seen their playoff positioning suffer as a result.
- Playoff Implications: The Liberty are going to be in the playoffs but their level of play late in the season has hurt their playoff seeding. New York is fifth in the standings and they need to start winning games again to avoid losing home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Past Meetings: The Liberty are 2-1 against the Sun so far this season. The home teams in this series are 2-1 to this point in the year.
- ATS Records: Connecticut is 5-0 against the spread in their last five games and New York is 1-4 ATS in their last five.
- O/U Records: The total has gone under in four of Connecticut’s last six games and under in five of their last six games against New York.
- Home/Road Splits: The Sun are 2-13 straight up (SU) in their last 15 road games against the Liberty and the Sun are 3-15 on the road for the year.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offensive/Defensive Metrics: The Liberty are fourth in the WNBA in offensive rating and fifth in defensive rating. Connecticut is 13th in offensive rating and 10th in defensive rating heading into this game.
- Pace of Play: The Liberty play at the fastest pace in the league and Connecticut will try to slow them down throughout this game.
- Key Mismatches: If Stewart is able to return for New York, they will have a huge size advantage over the Sun with Stewart and Jonquel Jones on the floor together.
Sun vs Liberty Model Projection
- Score Projection: Connecticut Sun 80 – New York Liberty 95
- Win Probability: Connecticut 15%, New York 85%
Final Thoughts
The Liberty are playing some bad basketball of late. But I think they will turn things around in this matchup against the struggling Sun. If Stewart comes back, I think this game could get ugly. But I think that New York will cover the number whether or not Stewie makes her return to the floor.
