The Los Angeles Sparks will host the Connecticut Sun on Thursday night at Crypto.com Arena. The Sun have the worst record in the league by a wide margin and they will look to pull off a sizable upset against a Sparks team that is trying to hang around in the race for the playoffs. Here, I break down this inter-conference matchup in the WNBA and give you my Sun vs Sparks prediction.
Our Sun vs Sparks Pick
- Pick: Los Angeles Sparks -11.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Connecticut Sun @ Los Angeles Sparks
- Date & Time: August 7, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
Sun vs Sparks Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Sparks –11.5 | Sparks -625 / Sun +455 | 175 |
Key Storylines
The Sparks have proven themselves with two wins in a row over playoff-caliber competition. They beat the Seattle Storm on the road in two overtimes before defeating the Indiana Fever at home on Tuesday. Los Angeles will be one game out of the final playoff spot in the WNBA by the time this game tips off and LA will look to continue their recent run of stellar play here.
The Sun enter the game with the league’s worst record at 5‑23. Connecticut is 1-12 on the road coming into this contest. Tina Charles has been the lone consistent performer for the Sun. She notched another double‑double in their recent loss to Phoenix. Marina Mabrey has shown flashes of brilliance since coming back from injury and she will need to have a big game to give Connecticut a chance here.
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
The Sparks are 2-0 against the Sun this season. Los Angeles survived their first meeting with Connecticut at home by just four points. They then crushed the Sun by double-digits in their second meeting on July 24. The Sun have been slightly better against the spread this season. They are 14-14 against the number and the Sparks are 13-14-1 ATS on the year.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
The Sun rank at the bottom of the league in offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating in 2025. Los Angeles is a solid offensive team and they rank fifth in the league in offensive rating. But they are 11th in the WNBA in defensive rating and will need to tighten things up on that end of the floor to avoid being put on upset alert here.
The Sparks play an uptempo style of basketball. They are second in the WNBA in pace behind only the New York Liberty. Connecticut is in the middle of the pack in pace and will look to slow the Sparks down whenever they can.
Sun vs Sparks Model Projection
Score Projection: Connecticut Sun 78 – Los Angeles Sparks 95
Win Probability: Connecticut Sun 15%, Los Angeles Sparks 85%
Final Thoughts
Connecticut showed plenty of fight the first time these teams met in Los Angeles this season. But I don’t expect that to be the case again in this game. The Sparks are playing high-level basketball right now and have the added motivation of trying to move into playoff positioning. I will lay the points with LA here in what I expect to be a lopsided game out West.
