The Connecticut Sun head to Indianapolis to face the Indiana Fever in a key Commissioner’s Cup showdown on Tuesday, June 17, 2025. Indiana is currently 5-5 and riding the energy of Caitlin Clark’s return, while Connecticut sits at 2-8 and is in the midst of a rough start. Here, you can find my Connecticut Sun vs Indiana Fever prediction before tip-off on Tuesday night.
Our Connecticut Sun vs Indiana Fever Pick
- Spread: Fever -15.5
- Total: Over 164.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Connecticut Sun @ Indiana Fever
- Date & Time: June 17, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
- Broadcast: NBA TV, NBC Sports Boston, WNBA League Pass
| Market | Line |
|---|---|
| Spread | Fever -15.5 |
| Moneyline | Fever -1600 / Sun +900 |
| Total | 164.5 |
Key Storylines
- Caitlin Clark’s Ascendence: Clark exploded for 32 points in the Fever’s recent win over the New York Liberty in her first game back after missing time with a quad strain.
- Sun’s Short Bench: Connecticut’s bench was outscored 36-2 in their last outing, relying heavily on their starters.
- Commissioner’s Cup Stakes: Indiana is tied for the lead in the Eastern Conference Commissioner’s Cup standings and look to keep themselves in contention for the final.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Connecticut took the first meeting on May 30, holding off Indiana 85-83 on the road. It is worth noting that Clark did not play in that game for Indiana.
- The Sun are 3-7 against the spread this season, while Indiana is 6-4 against the number.
- Both teams have seen more than half of their games stay under their respective totals this season. Connecticut is 4-5-1 on totals this year, while Indiana is 4-6.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Clark | Over 21.5 points | Fresh off a huge game in her return and getting major usage, she’s set to exceed this line. |
| Marina Mabrey | Over 18.5 points | Mabrey leads Connecticut at 17.6 PPG. Likely volume in Sun’s offense makes this a strong play. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offense: Indiana ranks fourth in offensive rating, a category the Sun rank last in.
- Defense: Connecticut ranks last in defensive rating as well, while Indiana is second in that category.
- Pace: Fever play fast, ranking third in pace, while Connecticut will try to slow things down.
- Potential Mismatches: Indiana’s guard-heavy attack should match up well against Connecticut’s backcourt depth issues.
Sun vs Fever Model Prediction
Score Projection: Connecticut 76 – Indiana 95
Win Probability: Connecticut 20%, Indiana 80%
Final Thoughts
Connecticut is in a tough spot. They are on the road, short‑handed, and fatigued due to a lack of depth. Meanwhile, Indiana boasts star power all over the floor and they have their floor general back. Expect Indiana to cover the large spread convincingly and the total to go over. Fever -15.5 and over 164.5 makes the most sense for those betting this contest in the W.
