The Connecticut Sun and Golden State Valkyries will meet in the lone game on the WNBA schedule on Monday night. Golden State is in the thick of the race for the final playoff spot in the WNBA. They will look to take advantage of a home game against the team with the league’s worst record here. Before the action begins in San Francisco, you can continue reading to get my Sun vs Valkyries prediction for the night.
Our Sun vs Valkyries Pick
- Pick: Golden State Valkyries -9
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Connecticut Sun @ Golden State Valkyries
- Date & Time: Monday, August 11, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
Sun vs Valkyries Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Sun +9 (-110) | +285 | O 157 (-110) |
| Valkyries -9 (-110) | -360 | U 157 (-110) |
Key Storylines
- Connecticut Sun: The Sun have struggled this season. They have a 5-25 record and a 1-14 record on the road. They are currently on a four-game losing streak and their last loss came by a score of 94-86 to the Las Vegas Aces on August 10. This is the second night of a back-to-back on the road for the Sun and Connecticut will look to prove that they can compete in spite of that.
- Golden State Valkyries: The Valkyries hold a 15-15 record and are 9-5 at home. They are coming off a 72-59 victory over the Los Angeles Sparks on August 9. Golden State is a half-game ahead of the Sparks for the eighth and final playoff spot in the WNBA. A win here would move the Valkyries a full game ahead of the Sparks as teams head into the final stretch of the regular season.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Past Meetings: The teams have split their two previous matchups this season. The Valkyries won 87-63 at home on June 22. The Sun secured a 95-64 victory in Connecticut on July 27.
- Against the Spread (ATS): Connecticut is an even 15-15 against the spread for the season. Golden State is 18-12 against the spread. Only the Lynx have more ATS wins than the Valkyries this season.
- Home/Road Splits: The home team has won both games in this season series this year.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Temi Fagbenle (Valkyries) | Over 5.5 Rebounds | Fagbenle is a tenacious rebounder for Golden State and should benefit from fatigue for the Connecticut bigs. |
| Janelle Salaun (Valkyries) | Over 11.5 Points | Salaun is averaging 11.5 points per game in August and should exceed that against a Sun team on a back-to-back. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offensive/Defensive Metrics: The Sun rank dead last in the league in offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating. Golden State is 10th in offensive rating and 6th in defensive rating this season.
- Pace of Play: The Sun play at a faster pace. They are 9th out of 13 teams in pace and the Valkyries play at the slowest tempo in the WNBA.
Sun vs Valkyries Model Projection
- Score Projection: Connecticut Sun 73 – Golden State Valkyries 85
- Win Probability: Connecticut Sun 28.9%, Golden State Valkyries 71.1%
Final Thoughts
The Golden State Valkyries have been excellent at home this season and I don’t see that changing here. The Valkyries will play with a sense of urgency knowing that they need to keep winning to stay ahead of the Sparks in the playoff chase. The Sun will struggle on the second game of a back-to-back here. I will lay the points with Golden State and expect them to win by double-digits.
