The Chicago Sky take on the Washington Mystics on Tuesday, July 8 in Fairfax, VA. Both teams are below .500 for the year, but they have All-Star talent that they hope will lead them to a win in this game. Here, I break down this Eastern Conference matchup and make my Sky vs Mystics prediction for Tuesday morning.
Our Sky vs Mystics Pick
- Pick: Washington Mystics -4.5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Chicago Sky @ Washington Mystics
- Date & Time: Tuesday, July 8, 2025, 11:30 AM ET
- Venue: EagleBank Arena, Fairfax, VA
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Mystics –4.5 | Mystics -198, Sky +164 | 159.5 |
Key Storylines
- The Sky are limping along with a 5‑12 record and they are playing their fourth straight game on the road.
- Chicago could have a key piece back for this game, with Kamilla Cardoso on her way back from representing Brazil and the FIBA AmeriCup.
- Both teams have All-Stars on their rosters. Angel Reese made the cut from Chicago, while rookies Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen got the nod from the Mystics.
- Both teams are outside of the top eight in the WNBA standings and need to make up ground if they want to make the postseason.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- In the season’s only prior meeting on June 17, the Mystics edged out the Sky 79‑72.
- Both teams have winning records against the spread this season. The Mystics are 10-8 against the spread for the year and the Sky are 9-8 against the spread.
- Chicago is 10-7 to the over for the year. Washington is 10-8 to the under.
- Chicago is 3-8 on the road this year, Washington is 5-3 at home.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Angel Reese | Under 13.5 rebounds | Reese is a great rebounder but could fall short of this number against a Washington frontcourt with plenty of depth. |
| Ariel Atkins | Over 1.5 threes made | Atkins will want to prove herself against her former team in this game. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offense: Both teams are in the bottom three in offensive rating this year. Chicago is 11th and Washington ranks 12th.
- Defense: The Mystics are eighth in the league in defensive rating. Chicago is 12th in that category.
- Pace: Both teams are in the top five in the league in pace. Chicago is fourth in pace and Washington is fifth.
- Key Matchup: Reese vs Mystics’ frontcourt featuring Irafen, Shakira Austin, Aaliyah Edwards, and Stefanie Dolson. Reese’s physicality could dominate in the paint, but Chicago’s depth will challenge her.
Chicago Sky vs Washington Mystics Model Projection
- Score Projection: Chicago 78 – Washington 83
- Win Probability: Chicago 35%, Washington 65%
Final Thoughts
Washington enters stronger in recent form, and playing at home, while Chicago remains undermanned and defensively porous. Angel Reese remains an elite rebounder, but overall value leans toward Washington to cover in this game. I expect a close with for the Mystics, who should also benefit from playing on their annual camp day in front of a loud crowd.
