On Sunday, two struggling WNBA teams will meet in Los Angeles. The Chicago Sky and LA Sparks have had nightmarish 2025 seasons so far. But one of them has to win when they play at crypto.com Arena this weekend. Here, I attempt to answer the question of which team that will be, as you can keep reading to get my Sky vs Sparks prediction for this matchup.
Our Sky vs Sparks Pick
- Pick: Los Angeles Sparks -6
- Confidence: ⭐⭐
- Bonus Bets For the Game: BetMGM bonus code – ATSBONUS – get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet doesn’t win going into Sky vs Sparks!
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Chicago Sky @ Los Angeles Sparks
- Date & Time: June 29, 2025, 4:00 PM ET
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
- Broadcast: ESPN
| Odds | Sparks | Sky |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -6 | +6 |
| Moneyline | -250 | +205 |
| Total | 169 | |
Key Storylines
- Home court advantage: The Sparks are 1-6 at home in 2025, while the Sky are 2-7 on the road. Something has to give here!
- Frontcourt battle: Chicago’s Kamilla Cardoso and Angel Reese face the Sparks’ Dearica Hamby and Azura Stevens. Whichever frontcourt duo plays better could be the key to victory for their team.
- Coaching: Both teams are playing under first-year head coaches. LA’s new coach Lynne Roberts is searching for a spark, while Chicago is still adjusting under Tyler Marsh.
- Playoff implications: Both teams are on the outside looking in when it comes to playoff contention and need to get wins in games like this one against similarly struggling competition.
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
- These teams have split their two meetings in the regular season, with the home team winning each of the first two games between them.
- Both teams are under .500 against the spread. Chicago is 7-8 ATS and LA is 6-10.
- Both teams have seen the majority of their games go over their respective totals (Sky 9-6, Sparks 9-6-1).
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offensive/Defensive Ratings: Sky rank 12th out of 13 teams in offensive, defensive, and net rating. The Sparks are slightly better in all three, but not by much.
- Pace: Both teams play at a fast pace. The Sparks are third in tempo, and the Sky are tied for fourth.
- Potential Mismatches: Both teams are very good on the interior. But the Sparks have a huge advantage on the perimeter as far as I’m concerned. Chicago doesn’t have anyone close to the level of Kelsey Plum to score for them from the guard spots.
Chicago Sky vs LA Sparks Model Projection
Score Projection: Sparks 91 – Sky 82
Win Probability: Sparks 68%, Sky 32%
Final Thoughts
There is no such thing as a lock in sports betting. But I feel especially strongly about that fact in this game. The Sky and Sparks have been so inconsistent throughout this year that it is hard for me to back either of them with any real conviction.
That said, I think Los Angeles is in a better spot, with a healthier roster, better perimeter play, and home-court advantage. Chicago’s offensive woes and defensive inefficiencies appear too great to overcome. Expect Hamby and Plum to shine, the Sparks to cover the six-point spread, and for Chicago to lose a second straight game in the state of California after their loss to the Valkyries on Friday.
