With both teams looking to establish momentum, Sunday’s WNBA showdown between the Atlanta Dream and Washington Mystics promises to be a battle. Atlanta (7‑3) boasts one of the hottest records in the league, while Washington (4‑6) is coming off a statement-making 37‑point win. Here’s a breakdown of this contest, one that includes my Atlanta Dream vs Washington Mystics prediction for Sunday afternoon.
Our Atlanta Dream vs Washington Mystics Pick
- Spread: Atlanta Dream –5
- Total: Over 159
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Atlanta Dream @ Washington Mystics
- Date & Time: Sunday, June 15, 2025, 2:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: CareFirst Arena, Washington, DC
- Broadcast: CBSSN
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta –5 | ATL –220 / WAS +176 | 159 |
Key Storylines
- The Dream have established themselves as a second-tier championship contender behind the elite Liberty and Lynx and will look for a key road win to help them stay in the top-three in the WNBA standings.
- Atlanta has no reported injuries. Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones have anchored the frontcourt, while Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray continue to deliver offensively. Washington’s Georgia Amoore is out for the year with a knee injury.
- Mystics are riding confidence after a 104‑67 blowout of Connecticut, but consistency issues linger with a 4‑6 record.
- This is a Commissioner’s Cup game, meaning bragging rights and bonus incentives are on the line.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This is the second meeting between these teams this season, with Washington winning 94-90 at home in mid-May.
- Mystics are 6-4 ATS this season; Atlanta is 7-3 ATS, delivering in clutch situations.
- Over is 4-5-1 in Atlanta’s games and 4-6 in Washington’s contests.
- Atlanta averages 84.2 ppg, while Washington counters with 79.6 ppg in 2025.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
Atlanta ranks third in the WNBA in offensive rating, thanks to modern spacing and coach Karl Smesko’s offensive system. Their defensive rating is above league average, driven by frontcourt size and length. Washington has improved in pace, ranking sixth in the WNBA in that category. But their offensive rating is 10th in the league, suggesting the need to be more efficient when going fast.
Key matchup: Atlanta’s tall frontcourt (Griner and Jones) against a Mystics squad with young bigs like Kiki Iriafen and Shakira Austin. Expect second‑chance points and boards to be Atlanta’s domain.
Atlanta Dream vs Washington Mystics Model Projection
Score Projection: Atlanta 88 – Washington 82
Win Probability: Atlanta 62%, Washington 38%
Final Thoughts
While Washington’s recent blowout win builds confidence, they remain vulnerable against a well‑rounded Atlanta unit. The absence of Amoore limits Washington’s guard rotation, and Atlanta’s frontcourt dominance should tilt the rebounding battle decisively in their favor. Expect a physically tough contest. Back the Dream to cover and take the over in a matchup primed for back‑and‑forth scoring.
