The Atlanta Dream will face the Connecticut Sun at Mohegan Sun Arena on Monday afternoon. This Labor Day matinee is an important one for Atlanta as they look to improve their playoff seeding against a Sun team playing for nothing more than pride. Before this Eastern Conference matchup begins, you can find my Dream vs Sun prediction for the game below.
Our Dream vs Sun Pick
- Pick: Atlanta Dream -10.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Atlanta Dream @ Connecticut Sun
- Date & Time: Monday, September 1, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
Dream vs Sun Odds
| Market | Atlanta Dream | Connecticut Sun |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -10.5 | +10.5 |
| Moneyline | -575 | +425 |
| Total | Over 159.5 | Under 159.5 |
Key Storylines
- Atlanta Dream: The Dream have been dominant this season. They have a 25-14 record and a 12-8 away record. Allisha Gray leads the team with 18.7 points per game and Brionna Jones contributes 7.2 rebounds per game. Jones is making her return to Connecticut after playing for the Sun up until this season.
- Connecticut Sun: The Sun are in a rebuilding phase with a 10-29 record. Tina Charles remains a key player for Connecticut. She averages 16.2 points and 5.9 rebounds per game. The Sun have shown fight late in the season and will look to continue that in this game against Atlanta.
- Playoff Implications: Atlanta enters this game a half-game behind the Las Vegas Aces in the race for second place in the WNBA standings. A win here would be huge for their chances of leapfrogging the Aces by the end of the regular season.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Past Meetings: The Dream have won both games played against the Sun this season. They will play three more times over the next two weeks.
- ATS Records: Atlanta is 23-15-1 against the spread this year. Connecticut is 22-17 against the spread in 2025.
- Home/Road Splits: The Dream have a 12-8 record on the road. The Sun are 6-13 at home.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offensive/Defensive Metrics: The Dream rank second in the WNBA in both offensive rating and defensive rating. Connecticut is 13th in the league in offensive rating and 10th in defensive rating.
- Pace of Play: Both teams play at a slow pace and that could help this game to stay under the total.
Dream vs Sun Model Projection
- Score Projection: Atlanta Dream 86 – Connecticut Sun 75
- Win Probability: Atlanta Dream 77.4%, Connecticut Sun 22.6%
Final Thoughts
The Atlanta Dream should get a win on the road in this game to help their chances of finishing second in the WNBA standings this year. Atlanta has won seven of its last 10 games and they should continue their winning ways in this matchup against a team that has already been eliminated from playoff contention. I’ll lay the points with Atlanta in this game.
